The ‘best’ technocrat money could buy

The Paradise Papers have appeared at a time when rumour mills in Pakistan are operating at full capacity to churn out the virtues of a technocratic set-up. Shaukat Aziz, the ‘best’ technocrat money could buy, has been named among the offshore players. In what must be the perfect technocratic set-up in 2000-2002, with General Pervez Musharraf as the Chief Executive (CE), Aziz was imported from Citibank and made the chief finance officer. Smartly turned out and billed as clean, he fully exploited his gift of the gab. He was seen doing the rounds in the power corridors during the political regimes, but the unclean politicians took no notice. In a meeting on the economy, the CE referred to a newspaper reporting a growth rate lower than the official target. A participant observed that it could be even lower. The CE looked at a visibly perturbed CFO who, giving a dirty look to the deviant participant, rubbished the report.

Back to office, he did three things. First, the deviant officer was not to be invited in future to such meetings. Second, all newspapers were to be supplied to his office every morning and a TV installed for quick updates. Third, a witch-doctor masquerading as economic adviser was called in to take care of the growth rate. Without any mandate, the witch-doctor (nowadays donning TV screens in favour of a technocratic set-up) rode roughshod over the statistics bureau. Thus started the never ending story of figure fudging, made to order data and tampering with the entire statistical system. Nothing was spared — national accounts, unemployment rate, poverty, prices, you name it. In his office, Aziz was never seen working or looking at any files. He was either surfing TV channels or going through newspapers looking for anti-stuff to be rebutted. To establish credibility, the previous government was reported to the IMF for massaging the fiscal deficit and a heavy fine was paid. It is another matter that the officers involved in the ‘cooking’ and reporting were the same, including the irreparable witch-doctor. Nothing changed even when he was catapulted into premiership. He held on to the finance ministry, knowing that politics is too serious a business to be left to a technocratic prime minister. Small wonder, he was preferred to a pliable Jamali, a friendly Chaudhry and others dry-cleaned by the National Accountability Bureau.

There are many feathers in his cap, but forcing poverty to come down statistically stands out. It started with the delay in the release of the Household Integrated Economic Survey 2000-01. Estimates of poverty in this bad economic year would have certainly been higher than the previous estimate. The 2000-01 poverty ratio was not allowed to be estimated and announced before 2003. An increase of 1.53 percentage points angered the finance minister. A statistically inappropriate recall survey was ordered, but to no effect. However, the technocratic boys were well prepared for 2004-05. The finance minister was also the prime minister now. Improved governance was ordered at the statistics bureau to nip the evil in the bud. The data was not given to the estimators until the statistical saboteurs were satisfied that the expenditure tables suited their targeted outcome. Poverty would have declined anyway, as the comparison was between the isolationist low growth year of 2000-01 and 2004-05 when the fruits of being a non-NATO ally of the US were being reaped. The results showed an incredibly high annual reduction of one percentage point. Not high enough, though, for the technocrats. Poverty line itself was changed, doubling the rate of poverty reduction. Those protesting the dishonesty were shown the door.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 10^th, 2017.

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