A crumbling relationship

America under Trump has made a clear statement as to where it is aligned; India is seen as a regional partner

Even at the best of times there was little love lost between Pakistan and America. The hours and days since President Trump sketched his future strategy for Afghanistan and the region generally have done nothing to repair relations and Pakistan is responding assertively to some of the proposals contained therein. A visit by US envoy Hale to GHQ in Rawalpindi on Wednesday August 23^rd produced two things — firstly that Pakistan does not need the financial assistance of Washington; and secondly that Pakistan will not be caving in to pressure from the Trump administration and will forge its own path in terms of its relationship with Afghanistan, latest American threats notwithstanding.

America under Trump has made a clear statement as to where it is aligned, and India is seen as a regional partner with a future. Pakistan, unless it complies with — or even shares the American analysis of — the Pax Americana has little by way of a future beyond being excess baggage. Unsurprisingly the push-back from the Pakistan side and the playing of one of the few cards we hold namely the role potentially played with the Afghan Taliban and their participation in future peace talks — takes us ever closer to China and Russia. With the US already at odds with Russia and having a growing concern about the direction of China and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ project the die appears to be cast for years to come.

As a worst case scenario Pakistan may find its major non-Nato ally status revoked and sanctions imposed. Pakistan may cut the American supply route to Afghanistan or revoke overfly permissions. The status quo is not an option for either party and the geo-political compass is being re-swung. For Pakistan the danger is that its own interests will be subsumed by external actors — China and Russia — which are far more powerful and whose only interest in Pakistan is what can be extracted from it to further their own ends. The visit of the foreign minister to Washington should go ahead as planned and he should carry with him a detailed brief as to just how little Pakistan needs Uncle Sam — and how little sense it makes to bring India into the Afghanistan endgame to the exclusion of Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 25^th, 2017.

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