Deconstructing the McCain plan

US Senator John McCain released an integrated civil-military plan for Afghanistan late last week and though input for the plan was sought from ex-US military and intelligence officials, it is not the Trump administration’s official policy which has been delayed for some inexplicable reason. However, there is sufficient cause for alarm by Pakistanis because the McCain strategy threatens ‘graduated diplomatic, military, and economic costs’ on Pakistan in case it continues to provide sanctuary and support to groups like the Taliban and the Haqqani Network. US National Security Adviser H R McMaster and other senior aides to President Donald Trump have dropped enough hints about adopting just such a strategy. It may be pointed out that since McCain is a much more experienced and deft reader of the South Asian regional political situation than all of Trump’s aides put together and his viewpoint does not exclude the possibility of imposing sanctions against Pakistan then it would be difficult for the US administration to argue against the move.

For Islamabad this constant expectation from Washington that it ought to do more against the Taliban and other militant outfits has started to resemble a wonky CD player that plays the same song over and over again. Pakistan has done more than in its part in stubbing out the flames of insurgency in Afghanistan. Yet Washington, like Kabul, has chosen to scapegoat Pakistan; it would be fairer if it accepted its own shortcomings and that of the Afghan National Army.

Woven into McCain’s strategy is a recounting of possible benefits that could accrue from a long-term US-Pakistan strategic partnership. Recognising Pakistan as one of the most important actors in Afghanistan, a role that the US Defence Department has publicly acknowledged this summer, McCain seeks a constructive role from the country as Washington pursues a peaceful resolution of the Afghan conflict. Given the tricky, fragile and complex regional relationships, the US senator hopes to work through flexible frameworks to advance the goal of regional cooperation on border security, intelligence sharing and trade. But a lot more is required to reduce mistrust and build confidence among regional players. Similar efforts have failed in the past.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 15^th, 2017.

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