How little has changed

It is becoming clear that very little has changed in the political landscape notwithstanding the ouster of Nawaz

With the opposition parties failing to agree on a joint candidate to nominate for the post of prime minister, it is becoming ever clearer that very little has changed in the political landscape notwithstanding the ouster of Nawaz Sharif. The huge, peaceful and indeed triumphal rally held by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf in Islamabad on Sunday July 30^th was presented as a victory celebration. At the same time as the masses gathered the PML-N was moving to consolidate its rule in Punjab and pushing to unseat the PTI in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The leader of the PTI, Imran Khan, reiterated the mantra of his crusade against corruption, bribery, nepotism and democracy — all entirely laudable — and cautioned that PPP Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman were next in his sight. The nominee for the interim prime minister-ship, Shahid Kaqan Abbasi, was also put in the firing line. Business very much as usual.

Political dreams aside there are some rock-hard realities for any challenger to the rule of the PML-N, both federally and provincially. Firstly, possession is nine points of the law — and the PML-N has a substantial majority in parliament that no opposition coalition is able to overpower, and a similar stronghold in Punjab. He who holds Punjab holds Pakistan. Secondly, and despite the best efforts of the PTI it has yet to emerge as a truly national party and its leader faces challenges not dissimilar to that faced by Nawaz Sharif, with potentially similar outcomes. The PTI may not be dynastic but its leadership has never been by anyone other than a single man, and the cult that surrounds him may not survive a fall.

The long campaign in the lead-up to next year’s election is well under way. Various Sharif family members may or may not find themselves before the courts and may or may not be convicted in the coming year. Notwithstanding the pledges of Imran Khan the Governor’s House in Lahore will still be standing by the time the polls open in 2018, and a reading of the runes suggests it will be standing long after that. Nothing is forever but some things last longer than others.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 1^st, 2017.

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