The good, the bad and the ugly

With the Supreme Court of Pakistan disqualifying the prime minister of Pakistan the political landscape of Pakistan and perhaps even the legal landscape of Pakistan is under deep review by the people of Pakistan.

1. As symbolism goes, the message of a powerful prime minister being held accountable is a potent one. It shatters the conventional wisdom that in Pakistan the high and mighty floats above the law. The verdict also strengthens confidence in the institution of the higher judiciary and may allow the citizen to believe that justice indeed can be served without discrimination. As symbolism goes, the Supreme Court may have delivered a historic judgment.

2. For Imran Khan the judicial ouster of arch-nemesis Nawaz Sharif is a resounding victory. Yes, there are ifs and buts to be talked about but all said and done Khan has landed the knockout punch he was swinging since Dharna 1. PTI is on a high because it rightly feels the wind at its back.

3. There is no obvious danger to democracy despite all the hyperbole. The PML-N has selected Shahid Khaqan Abbasi as the new prime minister. He will be voted into office and serve till Shahbaz Sharif can replace him after contesting for the National Assembly seat vacated by his elder brother. Senior party leader Ahsan Iqbal is on record having said on Friday, July 28^th, the PML-N government intends to serve out its full term that ends on June 4^th, 2018.

4. The trial of the former prime minister and his children will start once the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has filed the references to the court as ordered by the SC verdict. NAB has six weeks to do this and once filed, the accountability court will have to wrap up the trial within six months. This means the verdict of the accountability court could come sometimes in February 2018 at the latest. The former prime minister and his children will need to appear personally at the court hearings, unless exempted by the court. The media spectacle will be unending.

5. Some burning questions will however linger: a) now that the sword of Articles 62/63 has been unleashed, how many more victims will it devour? b) Will the unease over the use of Article 62(1)(f) grow as the repercussions unfold in the coming weeks and months? c) If a legal controversy is generated over this particular basis for disqualifying a prime minister, will the PML-N be able to use it to its political advantage?

6. Expect two things: a) Iqamas of a range of politicians from many parties will start to emerge mysteriously. They will be flashed prominently in the media and the iqama holders will be raked over coals. Subsequently these iqamas will form the basis of petitions which will be filed in courts across the four provinces. b) Declaration of assets filed by candidates in the 2013 elections will soon be the focus of intense scrutiny. Now that the SC has set a precedent in disqualifying a prime minister on the basis of a mis-declaration in his nomination papers, the PML-N will swoop down on the papers of its opponents with a vengeance. There will be a deluge of petitions (many of them frivolous) in the courts and an unending series of hearings could soon begin. For the judges and court reporters, a very busy schedule awaits.

7. Articles 62/63 of the Constitution are controversial laws and yet they have not been repealed because of the pressure from the religious parties and also because no party — including the PML-N — wanted to be accused of going against laws portrayed in religious hues. The Pakistan People’s Party had the courage to voice its opposition to these articles of the Constitution and Imran Khan himself had stated in interviews that if these articles were ever applied the entire parliament would be disqualified. Justice Asif Khosa — one of the judges who penned the SC verdict to disqualify Sharif — had himself critiqued Articles 62/63 in an earlier judgment. Yet the same people now rejoice in its use. The irony is inescapable. Will a consensus now develop to repeal them?

8. The PML-N’s strategy may be two-fold from here on: a) Nawaz Sharif will hit the streets with a show of power. He will be accompanied by some senior colleagues who may opt out of the next Cabinet and go the ‘awami’ way with the former prime minister. In a series of rallies and processions across the country, Nawaz Sharif and his men will focus on the fact that he was disqualified not on corruption and Panama Papers accusations but on a technicality and therefore they will stitch a narrative which points towards a deep conspiracy against the thrice-elected (and thrice ousted) prime minister. b) Shahbaz Sharif will be tasked to play the part of the ‘deliverer/doer’ who will match Imran Khan in energy, vigour and high-octane performance. Expect to see Shahbaz Sharif zigzagging the country making decisions, passing orders and generally cracking the whip. In the next few months a number of projects will be inaugurated and exhibited as proof that this government gets the work done. Expect a formal announcement about the end of loadshedding in the coming months.

9. This twin-track strategy of the PML-N will depend a lot on how events unfold in the accountability court. An adverse situation in the court can very easily overpower the effectiveness of the strategy.

10. Imran Khan now is the man of the moment. But moments pass. His strategy till the elections could be as follows: a) Drum home the point that he has been vindicated; that the court has established what he had been saying for two decades about the corruption of the Sharifs; that his struggle has brought the country to the brink of change. This situation has never been more fertile for this narrative. b) Create an ambience whereby he is seen as the winner of the next elections and therefore a natural magnet for electables from the PML-N and other parties. This will ensure he has strong candidates in constituencies that matter, especially in Punjab. c) Trigger desertions from the PML-N and weaken it to an extent that the party goes into the elections demoralised and truncated.

There are some wild cards: a) what if Khan himself gets disqualified? b) What if Shahbaz lands into serious trouble with the reopening of the Hudaibiya Mills case? c) What if a whole crop of senior PML-N leaders get knocked on the basis of iqamas, etc? d) What if the accountability court convicts Nawaz Sharif and family? e) Or acquits them?

So buckle up. The next few months will be good, bad and ugly.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 30^th, 2017.

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