Politics of Panama leaks

As the July 10 deadline for the submission of the report of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) appointed by the Supreme Court in the Panama leaks case is approaching, political confrontation between the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is intensifying. Irrespective of what is the final judgment of the Supreme Court, this confrontation is expected to escalate. The PML-N is expected to face opposition from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the Pakistan Awami Tehreek of Dr Tahirul Qadri, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and a couple of smaller political and religious parties. We may soon be entering the turbulent phase of Pakistani politics.

Both the PML-N and the PTI are engaged in a high pitch criticism of each other. There has been a clear shift in the focus of political debate on the part of both political parties. The initial criticism of the PML-N focused on the PTI, especially Imran Khan. They harshly criticised PTI politics and Imran’s political style. At times, the performance of the PTI government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was criticised. From time to time, rude comments were also made about several PTI leaders. The PML-N political assault was led mainly by Talal Chaudhry, Daniyal Aziz, Nehal Hashmi, Khawaja Saad Rafiq, Rana Sanaullah, Abid Sher Ali, Marriyum Aurangzeb and a couple of others. The present governor of Sindh, Zubair Omar, was also part of this group. However, he went into the background after taking office. He now periodically issues statements showing his loyalty to Nawaz Sharif with reference to the Panama leaks case.

As the JIT moved on with the investigation, the PML-N activists also began to target the JIT and its investigative process for sharp criticism. Some questioned the legitimacy and credibility of the JIT members and accused them of partisanship. Others raised doubts about their work. The recriminations became increasingly bitter as the Sharif family was summoned for investigation.

As PML-N activists are coming to the conclusion that the JIT is likely to give a negative report on the financial affairs of the Sharif family, they have become quite bitter about the working of the JIT. Nawaz Sharif described the whole exercise as a “joke” and useless while talking to the press in London.

A number of the PML-N leaders are saying that the JIT, Panama leaks and PTI opposition to the government aim at undermining democracy in Pakistan. Here the PML-N is equating the continuation of Nawaz in office with the future of democracy in the country. They are suggesting that Imran Khan and other opponents of the premier are playing into the hands of the army.

The PTI stalwart are no less vocal in criticising Nawaz and Shahbaz, their governance and the alleged corruption. Imran does not spare any moment to denounce Nawaz and his top advisers, especially those who regularly criticise the PTI. Sheikh Rashid, leader of the Awami Muslim League, an ally of Imran Khan, has proved to be the most vocal in launching verbal attacks on the PML-N. He is invited by most well-known TV channels in their political programmes because he attracts more viewers than other opposition political leaders.

The change in the PTI attitude is that it now points out to the growing hostility of the PML-N towards the Panama leaks case and the JIT. It also pledges to make sure that the PML-N activists do not physically interfere with the legal processes relating to the case.

By the beginning of July, the PTI leaders and activists appear more confident that the judgment of the Supreme Court would go against the Sharif family.

The PML-N and the PTI are dominating the political debate on corruption and money-laundering issues. Several other opposition political parties also criticise the PML-N government but not with the vigour that is shown by the PTI. The PPP appears to have discarded its friendship policy towards the PML-N. This was reflected in the decision of PPP leader Rahman Malik to present whatever evidence he had against the Sharif family to the JIT. Asif Ali Zardari also criticised Nawaz’s impatience towards the investigative process. Dr Tahirul Qadri, who returned to Pakistan in June 2017, sharply criticised the Sharif government. The PML-Q leaders — Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Parvez Elahi — are equally critical of Nawaz Sharif. The elder Chaudhry expects the PML-N to face an internal organisational crisis if the Supreme Court delivers a judgment against the PM.

All possible scenarios in the post-judgment period do not augur well for politics. If Nawaz is cleared by the Supreme Court, he is likely to settle his score with the opposition. The PTI would not sit back. It is expected to challenge the PML-N in the streets. In case the judgment is against Nawaz, the opposition parties would like to ensure that the judgment is fully implemented without any delay. The PML-N can select a new prime minister but this could cause internal jealousies and rift in the party. If the PML-N resists such a judgment, the Supreme Court has the option to invoke Article 190 of the Constitution to seek the support of the army to implement the decision. The army can either pursue the Kakar formula (July 1993) to enforce the judgment or it may replace the government altogether.

It is unfortunate that political polarisation and bitterness has intensified to such an extent that we cannot predict the direction of Pakistani politics in the next two months.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 6^th, 2017.

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