The US must value our role in emerging regional order

India, Pakistan and Afghanistan are in a battle of supremacy and influence leading to the lack of peace in the region

Is it just speculation or is there some hard evidence we don’t know about yet that the US is toughening its policy on Pakistan? More than exploring the option of “hardening its approach towards Pakistan” the Trump administration needs to do everything possible to understand the strategic environment in which Pakistan as a country operates.

There are many countries that are challenging the existing international order but surely Pakistan is not one of them. Washington accuses Beijing of seizing ‘contested territories’ from US allies in South China Sea and also undertaking a massive military buildup there. North Korea continues to challenge the US policy of ‘strategic patience’ with its ongoing ballistic missile tests. The Middle East has disintegrated right under the US eyes with the Islamic State (IS) now inspiring attacks all around the world. Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria are failing as states and the tiny state of Qatar is being cornered to promote further instability in the region.

Tehran continues to advance, despite UN and US objections about its missile programme and continues to test long-range ballistic missiles. There is much disorder than order that the US as the leader of the prevailing international system has been able to generate. Why? Part of that answer is in the US misstep of intervening unsuccessfully to manage a change in the balance of power in various regions. Whether it has been the Eastern European countries that were gradually made part of the Nato alliance at the cost of Russian annoyance or the horrific decision of invading Iraq — the US foreign policy plate is full with many diplomatic and military errors.

As a rule, peace can only be achieved if the balance of power is maintained and in doing that the main concern of the Trump administration should be to preserve and not destroy the existing balance of power in South Asia, more importantly in the context of the interstate relationship between Pakistan, India, Iran and Afghanistan. Pakistan has done everything possible to extend cooperation and support to the US (the reason why it was termed a major non-Nato ally) post the 9/11 event.



Imagining Pakistan as the sole contributor of emergence of dangerous consequences in South Asia, especially in the context of lack of durable and sustainable peace in Afghanistan, is a mistake on the part of the Trump administration. It cannot afford to reject the reality that it is not just Pakistan but the trio of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan that are jointly locked in a battle of supremacy and influence that is contributing to the lack of peace in the region. Attempt to fix one will not fix all and neither will it fix the underlying problem of lack of security in the region. The most decisive factor in bringing peace to this region is the ability of the US to deflect India’s attempts to isolate Pakistan and showcasing it as the sole ‘wrecker of existing order’ in the region. Asking Pakistan to submit to certain ‘rules of conduct’, without pointing a finger at India or Afghanistan that disregard and break such rules with impunity is poor diplomacy.

Lisa Curtis, the US adviser on South Asian affairs, must value Pakistan’s role in the emerging regional order based on a strategic environment defined by embrace of interdependence, partnership and rules by all stakeholders. Although Pakistan is not the sole cause of troubles in the region but a tougher approach executed unilaterally against Pakistan will definitely make it a consequence of many ills that will spiral out of control for anyone to manage. The spillover of these ill effects will be huge and like many US strategic misjudgments in the past weakening Pakistan will also contribute to weakening the regional and world order. The recent downing of an Iranian drone already sends a clear message to the world that Pakistan will not be willing to submit to the unfounded and baseless provocative behaviour of its neighbours.

The cold war between Pakistan and India is gradually leading to hot ends across the Line of Control. Not reported in the press as it should be but every action of the enemy from ‘bunker busting’ to targeting established posts on the border is being responded to in a tit-for-tat fashion by Pakistan. India may light up the LoC with the mortars and artillery fire trying to project to the world that such military methods are forced upon it to stop cross-border infiltration but it can no more black out and shut the worldview of its state atrocities being committed against the indigenous uprising of the people of held Kashmir against the state terrorism being executed by it. For now the Trump administration may afford to take the Indian side but given the ever-increasing bloodbath of innocent civilians in held Kashmir for how long will it afford to stay quiet?

No doubt China and India are great military powers in South Asia but Pakistan is a nuclear power that showcases one of the finest and professionally most competent military in the region that is also more experienced when it comes to fighting terrorists and participating in irregular war and fighting against terrorism. So instead of ‘toughening the policy’ on Pakistan, the Trump administration should be more concerned not to break down the balance of power and not create that unfavourable environment that may only lead to further instability in the region. Increased drone strikes, withholding aid or downgrading Pakistan’s status as major non-Nato ally (which subjectively actually means little) will be counterproductive deviations that will bring no rewards to an already failing US policy in the region.

Stepping up patrols on the borders, efficient border management and the willingness of the stakeholders to engage in sustainable dialogue is the only cure that the US must advocate and also lead to bring an end to the killings and counter-killings in a scary environment in the region that in the absence of dialogue continues to promote widespread calls and a policy for revenge by other means.

This region does not need drones and cruise missiles; all it needs is a set of chairs and a round table with the US willing to impose its authority to push all stakeholders not to back down until conclusive results are achieved. But the real question is — can there be a dramatic break with the past? Can the US execute a policy in the region that is more revolutionary than reckless?

The choice for Pakistan is simple — it can no more allow its sovereignty to be violated. If any drones flights and their strikes are not militarily confronted, Pakistan will showcase itself as a country that is willing to be subjugated by the powers that be by other military and non-military actions. This Pakistan cannot afford.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 24^th, 2017.

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