An ill wind blows no man to good

…is a proverb first recorded in 1546 but had likely been around for some time before then. Ill winds are currently blowing in the direction of Pakistan from an American direction, and what was true in 1546 is no less true today. Relations between Pakistan and America have always been to a greater or lesser extent — tendentious. Never really friends, marginally allied and frequently at odds. Trust is microns deep; mistrust plumbs the depths of the well of goodwill. The relatively benign years and softer breezes of the Obama administration has given way to a more muscular, less equivocal, Trump regime and the wind for Pakistan is decidedly ill.

There is a perceptible hardening of position by the Americans, and several sticks are being lined up to beat us with — withholding of some aid, more drone strikes and even a possible downgrade of Pakistan’s status as a major non-Nato ally. All this comes as the US ramps up its relations both commercial and diplomatic with India, and India itself outflanks Pakistan — again — on the Afghan front with the opening of an aerial trade corridor. There are arguments being made — and listened to — in America that years of effort to persuade Pakistan to curtail support for extremist groups and particularly the Haqqani faction have been completely fruitless. Yet at the same time it is acknowledged by the Americans that the Taliban in Afghanistan are not going to be brought to the table without the active support of Pakistan.

The review of the Afghan war and relations with Pakistan are not yet complete but patience is paper-thin. The perception is that it is the obduracy of Pakistan that has contributed much to the intractability of the Afghan conflict. Pakistan invariably finds itself on the back foot, falling back on the undeniable reality of the considerable sacrifices it has made in terms of fighting terrorism. Indeed that is true say the Americans, and we thank you for that but what about the terrorists you are not fighting? The ones that we think you continue to support in Afghanistan that undermines what little stability there is? The ill wind could blow harder in coming months. And is Pakistan ill-prepared? Possibly.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 21^st, 2017.

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