Completing the census

Concern has been expressed in the wake of the attack on a census team in Lahore on 5^th April. Tragic as the attack was the official response has been robust and rightly so. The census will continue and must be completed within the designated time frame. This is a vast, complex and potentially controversial operation, but vitally necessary if the experiment with democracy is to move on to the next stage. In terms of demography Pakistan has undergone radical changes since the last census in 1998, or 19 years — almost a generation ago. Since then there has been a shift from the countryside to the cities and the population has mushroomed perhaps to 200 million or more from the almost 135 million in 1998.

Why it is so vital to complete the census by September is that the inevitable boundary changes that are going to flow from it are going to take at least six months according to sources within the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), which takes the process very close to the due date of the next General Election. Also significant is that the census is reducing the chances of a snap election, a notion much beloved of Opposition parties, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in particular, for which the outcome of the Panama Papers case is of great import. The PML-N is going to tough it out whatever the verdict, and the PM will stay where he is his potential health issues notwithstanding. It is reasonable to assume that there has been some succession planning in the background and there will be a Plan A in the event of anything untoward happening to the PM.

The completion of the census and the boundary changes that follow are literally going to change the political face of Pakistan; and it cannot be assumed that the process is going to be free of contention. There may be further incidents of terrorism during the count but the government must not flinch, must remain vigilant and protect the census-taking teams. The census is a fundamental building block of democratic architecture and a successful outcome an indicator as to how mature — or not — Pakistan is as a state.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 7^th, 2017.

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