Prospect: Chinese growth slows in 2016 with outlook uncertain

Asian giant trying to focus on domestic consumer spending to drive expansion

BEIJING: China's economy grew last year at its slowest rate in more than a quarter-century but while Friday's data pointed to much-needed stability, Beijing is bracing for an uncertain outlook that could see a trade stand-off with Donald Trump.

After a tumultuous start to 2016, the country's leaders managed to steer the world's second economy with further stimulus to hit their annual target and even record the first quarterly pick-up in two years.



The Asian giant is a crucial driver of global growth but Beijing is trying to reduce its heavy reliance on exports and state-backed investment and instead focus on domestic consumer spending to drive expansion.

However, the transition has proved bumpy, with the crucial manufacturing sector struggling in the face of sagging global demand for its products and excess industrial capacity left over from an infrastructure boom.

This led to the economy growing 6.7% last year, in line with forecasts in an AFP survey but down from 6.9% in 2015 and the worst reading since 1990. The government targeted 6.5-7.0%.

The October-December increase of 6.8% also marked the first quarterly improvement since the final three months of 2014.

The National Bureau of Statistics called the figure a "good start" for the government's goal of achieving 6.5% annual growth through 2020.

"China's economy was within a proper range with improved quality and efficiency. However, we should also be aware that the domestic and external conditions are still complicated and severe," the National Bureau of Statistics of China said in a statement.

It added that the coal and steel industries had cut overcapacity, but structural reform should be the "mainline" this year, urging policymakers to focus on "fending off risks" to stability.

The positive close to the year was in contrast to the beginning, when worries about the state of the economy hammered global markets and the yuan tumbled against the dollar.

The improvement came on the back of a property boom in the first three quarters, loose monetary policy and strong fiscal support, OCBC Bank's Tommy Xie told Bloomberg News. But he warned "those three factors will all wane in 2017".

The weaker yuan helped boost exports in the second half, but soft December trade data added to worries about possible battles with Trump, who takes office Friday.

A long-running bad debt problem has also still to be addressed, with warnings from the IMF to the Bank of International Settlements that failure to do so could fan a serious financial crisis.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 21^st, 2017.

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