PK-661 — an inconclusive report

The cause of the crash of flight PK-661 close to Havelian on December 7^th 2016 is still unknown despite the release of the report on the analysis of the flight data recorder. Extreme caution must be exercised in the interpretation or analysis of the scanty information that is in the public domain, and ill-informed speculation avoided. Thus it is that we can say that both the engines of the aircraft were fit to fly when it took off. Presumably there is documentary evidence to support this. One of the engines was powered at the time of the crash. The aircraft made no attempt to land and deviated from its flight course shortly before impact. The pilot made a routine communication with control at 4.12pm when he appeared calm. Two minutes later he made a ‘Mayday’ alert and the course deviation occurred at 4.17pm. The crash occurred 10—15 minutes later and was reportedly notified by eyewitnesses. What happened between the change of course and the crash is either unknown or not yet in the public domain.

All of the above is what we can be certain of, and very little else — which is no comfort either to relatives of the dead still looking for an answer or to those whose job it is to pin down the cause of the crash. The analysis of the information on the data recorder was made by an external agency with no connection to PIA or the Civil Aviation Authority; and thus any perception of ‘interference’ in the result may be reasonably discounted. Conditions at the time of the incident were good — clear skies — and the pilot was experienced in flying in mountainous terrain. The aircraft was delivered to PIA on May 14^th 2007 and had an engine failure in 2014. The engine was replaced and no incidents or irregularities reported since.

It may reasonably be surmised that the aircraft lost the ability to glide or operate under single-engine power — which all twin engine aircraft are designed to do. Loss of that ability would suggest that the aerodynamic qualities of the aircraft had failed, at which point it becomes a brick and falls, with nothing those at the controls can do to stop it. Photographs of the crash site suggest that the aircraft went in vertically which would be commensurate with the above surmise. Fragmentation of the airframe and the bodies would also support that conclusion. What caused the loss of the ability to glide is going to be at the forefront of the minds of those still making an investigation, but a catastrophic event occurring to one of the engines for whatever reason — and no reason has yet been revealed though there has been badly-informed speculation — will be what the analysts will be trying to pin down, as well as how that would have affected the ability to glide. It may be some time before a conclusive diagnosis is reached.

Meanwhile, PIA continues to function as the national flag-carrier. The debt carried by the airline reached Rs185 billion in November 2016 according to M Irfan Elahi Federal Secretary Aviation Division reporting to a Senate standing committee in the last week. He also reported that only five of the remaining nine ATR aircraft are back in service after having been inspected and approved by a team from the manufacturers — leaving four that have yet to pass inspection. This is of particular concern as today, more than a month after the crash, the manufacturers have yet to give a clean bill of health to four aircraft.

Tragedy aside, PIA is mired in debt and as ever struggling to stay airborne. It had a better year in 2016 than the previous year, but the underlying problems of over-manning and the ‘open skies’ policy that has allowed its competitors to steal a march are unaddressed — and we still do not know what brought down flight PK-166.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 14^th, 2017.

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