A year of mixed fortunes

CPEC will continue to dominate through 2017 possibly with some of the expected benefits beginning to show green shoots

Introspection, retrospection and a little crystal ball gazing are attendant on the turn of every year. Perhaps the most positive development for Pakistan is that despite some determined boat-rocking a kind of political stability in the end prevailed. Considerable heat and very little light were generated by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in its pursuit of the Prime Minister and his alleged involvement in the Panama Papers affair. These pesky Papers were fuel to the political fires but never became a blaze, more of a slow burn that got talked up by a breathless media and Imran Khan — neither of whom appeared able to tell the difference between evidence that stood scrutiny in court and an unsupported allegation. The ship of state currently under the command of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz took a few hits but was never in serious trouble, and sails into the New Year in at least reasonable shape. Democracy, or at least the elective feudalism that is the local iteration thereof, won the day. Mostly.

Further evidence of a developing stability was a smooth handover at GHQ. The outgoing Chief of Army Staff and the incoming shook hands, exchanged the ceremonial baton and went their separate ways. Barely a ripple stirred the khaki pond. The 16^th COAS, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, was quickly busy and making it clear that both the Karachi Operation and the fight against militants and extremists in the mountains of the north were going to continue unabated.

In a linked development the number of terrorist incidents again dropped though there was an unexpected rise in the number of injured. Anecdotal reports say ‘the people feel safer’. If 2017 produces a similar downwards curve then the anecdotal gains a more objective patina. On the downside the National Action Plan remains mostly inactive, the National Counter-Terrorism Authority is all but dormant, madrassa registration in incomplete, money continues to flow into extremist coffers from abroad and the Islamic State remains a very large elephant in the room.

Whilst the military prospered the social sector in the broadest sense either stood still or walked backwards. The laying bare of the deficiencies in medical services exposed by the judicial report into the Quetta bombing were perhaps little surprise but profoundly depressing nonetheless — and unlikely to be limited to Balochistan. The Sindh government managed not to spend its child protection budget allocation for 2015-16, nationally the country still has one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world and at 5.1 million, the second largest out-of-school population after Nigeria.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor dominates the development landscape. It will continue to dominate through 2017 possibly with some of the expected benefits beginning to show green shoots. The Pakistan Stock Exchange remains bullish, provinces other than Punjab claim not to be getting their fair share of anything and a national sigh of relief was heaved with the resumption of the screening of Indian films in Pakistan cinemas. India and Pakistan continue to pick at the bleeding edge of the wounds of Independence, with 2016 being a particularly bad year along the Line of Control. To the credit of Pakistan it maintained a dignified position diplomatically whilst Mr Modi threw his toys around the nursery. Expect no change in 2017.

Externally the election of Donald Trump to the American Presidency is perhaps the largest known unknown of all, and 2017 will strip away some of that unknowing. A slightly nervous world awaits. Most of the guns have fallen silent in Syria at the close of the year and a New World Order is emergent with Russia and China being the power brokers and (perhaps) peacemakers.

Pakistan can move into 2017 with a guarded optimism. The coming year will be the overture to the 2018 General Election, there may or may not be a National Census and the sitting government will be where it is now at the end of it. We wish a Happy New Year to one and all.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 1^st, 2017.

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