The Trump Presidency

The dust is beginning to settle in the aftermath of the election of Donald Trump as the next American President, with a shape to his administration and its task-priorities emerging. America does not have a civil service like Pakistan or many other countries and when a president leaves office around 4,000 of his appointees leave with him. Few carry over to new administrations and in this instance it is unlikely that any will. Fog still blankets where foreign policy may be going in the new administration and Pakistan is reported to have ‘reached out’ to the Trump team — and it is wise to do so — a move being replicated widely across the world as nations seek to bring clarity in uncertain times.

Where there is less uncertainty is around the issue of immigration and illegal immigrants into the USA. During the course of a ’60 Minutes’ interview on CBS News he reiterated his claim that his administration would be deporting up to 3 million people who were guilty of a range of crimes, mostly having Latin-American origins. There may be a sprinkling of people of Pakistan origin among them but interestingly there has been no new, post electoral, statement on American relationships with the Muslim world.

Pakistan is one of a group of states engaged in what is still called ‘The War on Terror’ by many American commentators. The years since 9/11 have seen the Arab Spring and the rise and rise of Islamic State. The conflicts of today — and Pakistan is a combatant — are complex, layered and nuanced and few if any susceptible to a ‘win’ or ‘loss’ by any of the parties. The Trump administration is going to have to understand this from a standing start in a little over two months, with a team of people who on day one of his Presidency have little or no experience of the region, the players, or indeed the risks. All of the states engaged in conflict are Muslim-majority. The Trump administration is going to be on a steep learning curve with little room for misspeaks or misjudgments. Diplomatic minefields get no trickier than this.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 16^th, 2016.

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