Consumer confidence drops

Gauging the mood of the nation — or indeed any nation — is never easy. Hedged around with subjectives as ‘mood’ is, tracking a path to what is a true indicator of how the state feels about itself is littered with pitfalls. Despite this there is a basket of indicators that are generally agreed to be a reliable barometer, one of which has reported that consumer confidence in Pakistan has dropped three points in the third quarter of the year, dipping into the zone a single point above the 100 benchmark point — anything scoring above the 100 ranking as ‘optimistic.’

This may sound inconsequential but it is not. Confidence in Pakistan has risen steadily since 2008 and reached its highest level in the first two quarters of this year but it dropped to 101 from 104 in the previous quarter. The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence is the origin of this report and we have referenced this as a reliable source in the past. Although Pakistan remains just above the 100 point, a dip of three points is of concern. The greatest or second-greatest worry that people have concerns job security with almost a third of the population worried about their jobs. Concerns for the welfare of parents followed closely which at 24 percent was up three points. Children’s education and work/life balance were steady at 22 percent.

The survey is both good and bad news overall. Good in that Pakistan remains in the optimistic zone, bad in that this is a considerable dip in a single quarter. There appears to be confidence in the economy and a perception that the recession has lessened despite the core inflation rate going up to 5.2 in October (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/core-inflation-rate) and Pakistan is still among 16 nations that have reached or exceeded the optimism benchmark — one of the few instances where we may be said to be towards the top rather than the bottom of a global table. The challenge now is to arrest the slide, turn it into a blip rather than a trend. Good(ish) news is hard to come by, and to be fostered rather than left at the roadside.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 12^th, 2016.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.