Through a glass darkly

Beyond some heavily reported comments about Mexican walls and the exclusion of Muslims from America virtually nothing is known about the foreign policy aspirations or inclinations of President-elect Trump. He has never been a practising politician and his knowledge and experience of the wider world is strictly transactional. He is primarily a businessman and will bring business skills and attitudes to his foreign dealings whoever he appoints as Secretary of State. There are however some straws in the wind, few of them to our advantage. The business-minded Mr Trump will be eyeing Indian markets which are a huge opportunity for US manufacturers. He has already promised that India and the US are going to be ‘best friends’ — he has an admitted ‘soft spot’ for India — and feted the Indian PM Narendra Modi on his recent visit to the USA. Nothing similar is likely to be forthcoming in respect of Pakistan.

Riding on the back of the prevention of Muslims entering the USA (a statement today interestingly removed from the Trump website) is the ongoing concern in the USA about terrorism, and specifically the part that Pakistan is perceived to play in fostering terrorism globally. If we are seen by the Trump administration as not doing enough to stamp out the snakes at the bottom of our own garden we can hardly expect a benign response. For that read that any aid is going to come with a cobweb of strings attached.

On the upside what you see is what you get with Mr Trump. There will be no ambivalence or lack of clarity. The current American relationship with Pakistan is extremely complex. If nothing else Mr Trump likes simplicity in all things and he is noted for having a short attention span and has himself said that having attained the Presidency he might get bored. A bored President may choose to walk away from complexity and leave things as they are — both a comfort and a danger. The current dysfunctional relationship is going to get no better in the short to medium term, and will be exacerbated until at least some of the uncertainties are resolved.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 11^th, 2016.

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