Middle East revolution: And we all fall down…

On January 24, few people thought that the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak would be forced out of office by a crowd of angry protestors. The same could be said for his fellow ex-autocrat, Zine el Abedine Ben Ali. The question the region’s observers and many of its leaders are asking is: who’s next?

In many ways Tunisia was an unlikely place to spark what many are calling a regional revolution. As with many crises, pundits with the benefit of hindsight claim otherwise. Unemployment was high, much higher than official figures indicated. This is a region where one in three lives on less than $2 a day, and inflation was driving them into abject poverty. A massive “youth bulge” from high birth rates is creating more workers than the economy can hope to absorb. The regime stifled political dialogue and dissent causing even small grievances to stew and bubble over.

However, Ben Ali and Mubarak ruled their respective countries for three decades before they were unceremoniously dumped by their constituents. Unemployment, angry youth, and street protests are nothing new. Why then were these protests so large? What gave them the inertia to overcome even the most stubborn of autocrats, Mubarak?

There may be some formula out there, but the key component seems to be hopelessness – the kind of hopelessness that leads young men to douse themselves in petrol and strike a match. In Egypt’s case it was a sense that the people were at the utter mercy of the regime’s thuggish politicians and their cronies. The brutal and public beating to death of Khaled Said gave a face to a generation of young people without a future. There are certainly other countries in the region with youth who have similar stories to tell. Some of them are already protesting in the streets hoping to repeat the successes of Tunisia and Egypt.

Algeria

If unemployment and uneven economic development were factors in Ben Ali and Mubarak’s demise then Abdelaziz Bouteflika has much to worry about. Algeria’s economy is the worst performing in the region. Political repression is also rife.

In 1991, after the elections were won by the Islamists, the government cancelled the results and declared a state of emergency in response to the subsequent violence. Algeria is no stranger to unrest, but unlike in previous cases there appears to be little motivation other than anger driving this group of protesters. As with Ben Ali and Mubarak, nebulous promises of reform and a broader tolerance of dissent have been met with only more forceful protests. However, Bouteflika has proved more resilient than Ben Ali and Mubarak. Protests have continued on and off since late December, a few days after the uprising in Tunisia began.

Jordan

In the Levant, Jordan appears to be in the most danger of succumbing to a popular uprising. Abroad, King Adbullah II is lauded for his pragmatic foreign policymaking and credited for driving a programme of economic liberalization but unemployment remains a problem. Officially the unemployment rate is estimated to be around 15%, but youth unemployment is roughly four times that figure.

Jordanians also appear to be tired of the King’s preferred method of reform – sacking the cabinet – and are looking for something more concrete. The King and his high profile Queen Rania, are rarely criticised in public, and the recent public accusation of corruption by the Hashemite ruler’s support base amongst the Sunni tribes is reason for pause.

Most commentators agree on the relative security of the Kingdom’s ruling family for no other reason than the fear amongst the Eastern tribes that a liberal democracy will be run by Palestinian immigrants who have been disenfranchised by their Jordanian hosts. That calculation changes should those tribes turn against the King. That said, it is far more likely that they are using the momentum for change to obtain concession and a further cementing of their political power.

The West Bank and Gaza

The Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip could also be ripe for revolt, despite the fact that the media spotlight has yet to fall on them. Unemployment in Gaza is near 50% mostly due to an Israeli blockade but also to mismanagement by the de facto Hamas government. In the West Bank, simmering anger at decades of feckless rule by an anaemic Palestinian Authority was given an additional spark by the release of confidential papers by Al Jazeera showing apparent capitulation on key Palestinian territorial demands in negotiations with the Israelis. However, Israel remains the greater of two evils to the Palestinians, and they are probably too afraid of what would happen should they lose what leadership they have to stage a coup.

The Gulf states

The Gulf is a more curious case. Its citizens are widely considered to be complacent beneficiaries of wealthy rentier states, but stereotypes are misleading. All of them have a degree of internal dissent, which is seen most prominently in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Bahrain appears to be under the greatest threat. The first post-oil economy among the GCC states, the Kingdom has far fewer funds to dole out to the population. The Sunnis, which rule the island state, are the minority and the Shiites feel dispossessed by their religious cousins. A few thousand people have rallied outside the Egyptian embassy, ostensibly in support of the youth movement there, but also for greater political freedoms in their homeland.

Shiite rioting has become commonplace in Bahrain; often, youths will throw rocks at police in the early evening before going out with their friends for the evening. However, there are historic reasons to be concerned. Riots in 1991 led to the removal of the previous ruler and the installing of his son, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. He enacted the National Action Charter, promising democratic reforms and personal freedoms, but he has delivered on few of them. So, it is no coincidence that protests in Manama are scheduled for the 10th anniversary of the charter’s ratification. Nor is it any coincidence that the King has gifted roughly $2,500 for every family to mark the same occasion. However, a revolt is less likely than concessions from the King, who has been hamstrung by hardline elements within the family and ruling elite opposed to such change.

Yemen

Yemen is riddled by insurgency, sectarianism and war and has been since its creation as a modern state. Ali Abdullah Saleh rules by the silk glove of patronage to his support base and the iron fist of military might. He has balanced fear of Shiite militias and Al Qa’eda to justify his policies both at home and abroad, but his failure to bring stability to the country has made his excuses wear thin. Saleh has tried to appease the population by saying he would not run for re-election, but he has reneged on that promise before, and if it did not work for Mubarak it is not likely to work for Saleh.

There is an undeniable momentum for change in a region beset by the worst unemployment and some of the most politically stagnant regimes in the world. However, caution must be urged. Each country has its peculiar dynamics and each factor that potentially leads to revolt has a different weight in each.

Revolutions are peculiar things, the ingredients are well known and have been picked apart by numerous pieces of punditry in the wake of the events in Tunisia and Egypt. Ben Ali and Mubarak were in power for 30 years before they were thrown out. Others, such as Bahrain and Iran survived nascent revolutions either, in the case of Bahrain, by promising reform, or brutal repression like in Iran. Revolutions defy prediction and analysis because they need an extra spark to drive an angry population into a frenzy. It takes an act of faith for a population to dive out of relative stability into the anarchic unknown. It rarely happens, but it can happen to any country. Sometimes all it takes is the despair of one angry young man.

Published in The Express Tribune, Sunday Magazine, February 20^th, 2011.