Feeling the heat

Pakistan faces threats and challenges that in terms of being existential as in a threat to the viability and very existence of the state, are far greater than terrorism or even incompetent governance — though the latter is unlikely to in any way mitigate the oncoming disaster. It is global warming that is rolling towards us; indeed Pakistan is already experiencing the effects of this inexorable phenomenon and is in the top-ten states globally of those going to be most adversely affected by the phenomenon. Note the use of the phrase ‘going to be’. There is no ‘if’ or ‘but’ or prevarication to be had in this matter. Global warming is an accomplished reality. There are still a minority that argue that the impact of human activity in the last two centuries is not the primary driver but the arguments either way are today virtually irrelevant. It is happening, it is happening fast and Pakistan is indifferently prepared for it.

The latest information on the warmer world comes from the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). The job of IPCC is to collate and synthesise a range of reports and aggregate them into a big picture that is digestible for scientists as well as the common man — and even more importantly in the local context for government policymakers. The 2°Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold for the increase to be termed ‘dangerous’ is going to be exceeded by 2050, and a leading climate scientist says that there is ‘no chance’ of the increase being pegged back to 1.5°C, and 2°C may be attained before 2050. This is extremely bad news for every government for the next 33 years, whatever their political hue. Floods, droughts, intense storms, heatwaves and forest fires are all going to increase, in all likelihood both quickly and dramatically. Extreme weather is advancing and it is here to stay. The year 2015 was the hottest on record and 2016 is shaping up to be even hotter. Steps to mitigate what has the potential to be overwhelming need to be planned and taken now. We are not holding our breath.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 3^rd, 2016.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.