Karachi by-poll

The electoral backwash from recent events inside the MQM are now evident in the results of the election for PS-127

The electoral backwash from recent events inside the MQM are now evident in the results of the election for the provincial assembly seat of PS-127, which has been taken by the PPP — 12 years after the last time it held the seat. It is perhaps too early to say definitively that the disconnect between the London arm of the MQM and the Karachi franchise is going to have more than a passing effect, but the PPP victory is an indication that the MQM can no longer expect to have it all its own way electorally. There were at least 21 candidates for the seat, which was vacated by Ashfaq Ahmed Mangi who joined the Pak Sarzameen Party of Mustafa Kamal in April — but the PPP and the MQM were the only real contenders with a chance of winning.

The margin of victory was substantial — 21,200 for the PPP to 15,400 for the MQM, and the PPP may feel that this result is the righting of an injustice as their last post-holder was gunned down in March 2004. The MQM won the seat after his assassination and they will be smarting today at not only the defeat per se but the scale of it. The poll was marred by some violence and the turnout reportedly low. ‘One swallow does not a summer make’ goes the old saying and it is going to be for future by-elections and a general election to determine whether the electoral geography of Karachi really has changed. The unconscionable but clearly tactical delay in the census and subsequent boundary delineation are other factors in play; overall contributing to something of a churn. The PPP chose its candidate well, strong and experienced, very much a known quantity. Fielding similar candidates elsewhere in the city may pay similar dividends. For the PTI, the result was miserable, only garnering ‘village votes’ and considerably down on its 2013 performance. For the MQM, the result may herald a decline in fortunes overall, a position which it is both unused to and uncomfortable with. The currents are shifting, and may no longer flow to the exclusive advantage of the MQM.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 10^th, 2016.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.