A deadly spiral in Afghanistan

Attack on American University in Kabul exacerbated the already parlous relations between Pakistan & Afghanistan

The attack on the American University in Kabul is the latest in a series of interconnected events that point to a steady deterioration in the ability of the Kabul government to extend its national writ. The attack further exacerbated the already parlous relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The border dispute that began with the burning of a Pakistan flag by Afghan protesters remains unresolved after a week and formal trade between our two countries is on hold. In the aftermath of the Kabul attack, President Ashraf Ghani said that it was “organised and orchestrated” from Pakistan and in a phone call to the army chief demanded “serious measures against the terrorists”. The implication being that Pakistan was clinging to vestiges of ‘strategic depth’ with its patronage of Taliban fellow travellers such as the Haqqani group, as well as giving safe harbour to Taliban groups that strike Afghanistan from within Pakistan. At least 16 died in the American University attack which was classed as “complex” by Afghan security agencies, and two foreign faculty members are still missing. Three mobile phone numbers used during the attack were shared with Pakistan and they were found to be using Afghan SIMs linked to an Afghan network that has spillover signals in parts of the tribal areas. The attack may well have been controlled from the Pakistan side of the border, but to accuse the Pakistani state of collusion is perhaps stretching it a bit too far. Whatever the truth of the matter, for Afghanistan this is yet more proof of what it sees as Pakistan’s duplicity. Not the best ground on which to build peace and reconciliation structures.

Adding to the sense of insecurity, there are signs of a convergence between elements of the Afghan Taliban and fighters of the Islamic State (IS). The US State Department is reportedly “aware” of an emerging alliance between the two groups which in Afghanistan at least have been opposed to each other and fought bitterly. It appears that a ‘patchwork’ ceasefire between the two groups has been operant for the last two months. Given that the Afghan Taliban form a parallel government in the southeast of the country, which borders Pakistan, this will raise concerns in the security establishment on this side of the border as well. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has been effective in terms of clearing Taliban from most of Fata; but it has also decanted any number of well-armed and trained Taliban into Afghanistan and into the very area that is now being viewed as one where two hitherto opposing forces are moving towards an alliance. The IS is not known for forming allegiances with any other group, and other extremist groups have been wary of forging alliances with it.

Thus if substantiated this move may indicate a shift of position within extremist movements. Both IS and the Afghan Taliban are in their own right powerful if unequal organisations, with the latter being very much the senior partner in any rapprochement between the two groups. Combining human resources and materiel informally rather than under a declared joint banner would represent a significant shift in the balance of extremist power. Linked to the foregoing, IS entryism in Pakistan is inevitably going to lead to cross-pollination over the borders, which ultimately is bad news for both Afghan and Pakistani governments. It is possible to see this shift as a natural evolution of relationships between groups that despite having underlying differences are prepared to put them on hold to advance a wider goal.

Taking the disparate elements together, a picture of a crumbling and insecure Afghanistan emerges. Non-state actors are on the front foot, the government making advances almost nowhere and for some analysts, the future in Afghanistan is Taliban. We hope they are wrong.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 28^th, 2016.

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