Globalisation and its discontents

Job insecurity is haunting working classes of many Western countries and adding fuel to the fire of political disquiet

Tom Hanks is such a fascinating actor that it becomes virtually impossible to resist his films. Even those which do not perform well on the box office. His recent film, A Hologram for the King, fits perfectly in this category. Based on Dave Eggers' novel by the same name, it is the story of a desperate salesman Alan Clay’s exploration of the Saudi kingdom and his own life. Context is provided by the economic recession that wiped out countless opportunities in America. Clay is haunted by the ghost of his past decisions when helping shift the company he worked for to China, for the sake of cheaper labour. Copycat imitation culture in Asia meant that once a major player shifted to China, the entire industry was lost to Chinese firms. Job insecurity is haunting the working classes of many Western countries and adding fuel to the fire of political disquiet.

In my recent visit to the US, I had an opportunity to visit the Rust Belt in the American Midwest which is expected to vote for Trump. Driving around St Louis, Missouri was enough to witness how many factories had been shut down due to the fact that the companies operating them found cheaper labour in India, China or elsewhere in Asia. This disaffected class of labour is so angry now that it cannot even tell the difference between Trump’s rhetoric and objective realities of life. Let this be a warning for all those not-so-affluent parts of the world, including us. You would think that the southward shift of the job markets is a defining phase in geopolitics as well as geo-economics. So China and India are made, aren’t they? Sadly, not quite. Manufacturers have chosen these markets in the quest of cheaper labour and that’s why these economies are progressing right now. But the new-found working class affluence in these countries may prove to be very, very short-lived. Reason? Interesting times. Cheaper labour is better than an expensive workforce but pales in comparison to machines when operated by artificial intelligence. And while it might sound a plot right out of a science fiction novel, most of it is already becoming a reality.

The trouble with the newly found wealth is that you quickly get accustomed to it. And when it is withdrawn, it really bothers you. Consider this. It may take another five to 10 years for the machines to rise and displace human labour. And this period is enough for the behaviour pattern to change in the emerging economies. But what happens when 3D printing becomes more cost-effective than manufacturing, when self-driven vehicles are considered more reliable than the manual ones. When automated machines make our lives so easy that from fighting wars to doing menial jobs in a household, are left to them. If relative affluence can make an average Indian voter so self-assured that he can elect Narendra Modi, imagine what damage can a jobs-related crash can do. Also we need to factor in the issue of population growth. Population in reality doesn’t grow, it multiplies. Keep doubling the population and hence the frustration.

These are the kind of dynamics that are shifting focus of states from politics to economics. This changing emphasis can give birth to a world order not based on the archaic precepts like balance of power or realpolitik but interdependence. The old school perception of a constant conflict between states is history and the new conflict is to impact the bonds between individuals. States then will have to work together to find common solutions for their people or else risk losing their subjects to anarchy. While most of the world seems ready to work together, this message is sadly lost on us South Asians. A meeting of finance ministers of Saarc countries is soon to take place in Islamabad. But like everything else in Saarc, this moot too is about to be subjected to hostility between India and Pakistan. And that is not all. The Indian opposition of the CPEC shows New Delhi is still looking at such developments through the prism of realpolitik. All three countries will have to work closely to ward off dangers that lie ahead, especially if they don’t want to abandon their responsibility towards their constituents. But sadly, obsession with politics ensures this point is totally being overlooked.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 20^th, 2016.

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