QCCM: a much-needed counterterror arrangement

Last year, refusal by the chief of the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) to sign an intelligence-sharing agreement with the ISI, at the last moment when all matters pertaining to the accord had been finalised, triggered a deterioration in bilateral ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Moreover, comments of Indian National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, over the Pak-Afghan bilateral arrangement regarding intelligence-sharing, allegedly persuaded officials in Kabul not to implement the agreement. This development widened the trust deficit between Kabul and Islamabad that is still having a negative impact on joint efforts against terrorism.

Now, we see another arrangement for intelligence-sharing, which has been brought about with the help of China. Last week, the military leaderships of Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and Tajikistan formed a Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM) to counter terrorism, with the inaugural meeting held in Urumqi, Xinjiang, in China. A joint statement released after the meeting stated that the QCCM was to coordinate and provide mutual support to the four countries in the fields of counter-terrorism, intelligence-sharing, clue verification, counterterrorism capacity-building, situation evaluation, counterterrorism joint training exercises and personnel training.

As stated earlier, the agreement between the ISI and Afghanistan’s NDS couldn’t be implemented last year due to severe criticism from an influential section of the Afghan power elite, including Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, former president Hamid Karzai as well as several intelligence officers. President Ashraf Ghani's attempts to defend the deal remained unsuccessful in the face of the strong opposition to the agreement. The development at the time created an impression across Pakistan that Indian influence had been behind the scuppering of the deal, with the situation hurting any improvement that had been made in improving ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Doubts about the India factor and the resulting widening gap between Kabul and Islamabad are not without reason. In 2014, a lecture by the Indian NSA at an institute in his country proposed countering Pakistan in Afghanistan, while clearly stating that if Pakistan continues to bring up the Kashmir issue, it would be made sure that it loses Balochistan. Moreover, US officials in the past have hinted at India’s anti-Pakistan activities in Afghanistan. Former US defence secretary Chuck Hagel stated in February 2013 that Pakistan's 'neighbour' uses the soil of another 'neighbour' to foment instability in Pakistan. Pakistan’s reservations over Indian influence in Afghanistan are, therefore, justified. The scuppering of the bilateral agreement between the ISI and the NDS further enhanced the trust deficit.

Hence, the QCCM is being formed at a time when mistrust between Kabul and Islamabad continues to exist and the India factor is still alive. It remains to be seen to what extent the QCCM will be successful in achieving its objective to bring the four countries, including Pakistan and Afghanistan, closer together.

It should be noted here that China enjoys the goodwill of Afghanistan and both countries have a good working relationship. China is working on several development projects in Afghanistan and no one has any doubts about Beijing’s intentions and the country’s policy of staunch opposition to militancy in any regional state, as terrorism in any form is detrimental to Chinese interests. China also has good relations with other players in the region. Beijing is active in the possible brokering of a peace deal between the Afghan Taliban and the government in Kabul. It is also capable of counter-balancing Indian influence in Afghanistan in support of joint efforts and intelligence-sharing under the banner of the QCCM.

Besides countering terrorism, the quadrilateral mechanism is likely to provide ground for confidence-building measures between Pakistan and Afghanistan, once the process of its implementation starts. However, Kabul and Islamabad would have to understand each other’s limitations and security concerns. Afghanistan and Pakistan are interdependent. Being a land-locked country, Afghanistan needs a cost-effective route for transit trade, while Pakistan wants success in its strategic projects like the CPEC, as well as access to Central Asia. Both countries need each other to achieve their strategic objectives and if there is any hope of ensuring lasting peace in the region, it rests on the cooperation of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The QCCM can provide an important forum for trust-building where both countries can come to understand each other's concerns and work towards establishing peace through intelligence-sharing and mutual cooperation on the counterterror front. Cooperation and bilateral deals are indeed better than needless antagonism that leads nowhere.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 11^th, 2016.

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