Nielsen Global Survey: Consumer confidence steady in Apr-Jun

Index stands at 104, but respondents’ sentiment towards the economy changes slightly

KARACHI: Pakistan’s consumer confidence remained consistent in April-June at the index level of 104, according to the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions released on Thursday.

The index has been rising since 2008 and reached its highest level during the first quarter of 2016.

The GDP growth in Pakistan remains high at 4.7% in 2015-16, but Nielsen witnessed a shift in respondents’ faith in the country’s economy with the increase of global oil prices.

The perception that the country is in an economic recession has increased from 69% (Jan-Mar) to 72% (Apr-Jun).

“Overall, Pakistan’s economy seems to have had a slight impact on consumer confidence this quarter. Although the index remains unchanged from the previous quarter, we can see a shift in the respondents’ sentiment towards the economy,” a statement quoted Nielsen Pakistan Managing Director Mustafa Moosajee as saying.

It said softer oil prices will pose a threat to the earnings of the government, which collects substantial revenue from customs duties and import taxes. Softer oil prices and resultant subdued inflation, coupled with higher foreign exchange reserves, are expected to bolster the macroeconomic outlook,” the statement said.

During the Apr-Jun quarter, 68% of the respondents were more optimistic about their personal finances compared to the previous quarter (64%). There has been a shift in spending patterns, as respondents believe this is a good time to buy (45%) and are spending more on out-of-home entertainment, new technology, new clothes and vacations compared to last quarter.

The number of respondents who are utilising their spare cash to pay off their debts and credit card bills this quarter (12%) has dropped by four percentage points compared to the previous quarter (16%).

Established in 2005, the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is fielded quarterly in 63 countries to measure the perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances, immediate spending intentions and related economic issues of real consumers around the world.

Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 5^th, 2016.

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