A tale of two conventions

Trump is a candidate like no other and if he wins will be a president like no other as well

Making the longest acceptance speech for 40 years Donald Trump was accepted by the American Republican Party for election to the office of the next President of the United States last week. Thus it is that a 70-year-old billionaire with no previous political experience (he has never held an elected position), at least four bankruptcies, three marriages and a life that might conservatively be described as ‘colourful’ will lead the most powerful nation on earth if he wins the November 2016 election. His acceptance is in some ways the epitome of the American Dream — he built his empire from the ground up and has entered politics as an iconoclast, a man determined to bring down the shibboleths (as he sees them) of the political establishment and re-write the rule book. Taken as a whole the Republican Party was far from united in its affirmation of Trump as their candidate, and there is much water to go under the bridge before polling day.

Long as the speech was, it was also notable in that it was more restrained than some of Trump’s previous efforts, with some commentators calling it “presidential”. It was billed as a “law and order” declaration and was overall sharply authoritarian in tone. There was a commitment to “safety being restored” that plugged into mainstream American paranoia that was further bolstered by references to terrorism and domestic crime. Islamic extremism got a mention but it was the jugular of Hilary Clinton that was in the centre of the Trump sights, though even here he was notably toned down calling for Clinton to be defeated in the polls rather than locked up or shot, as was mooted by one of his aides earlier in the convention.

This was a Republican convention like no other, and Trump himself is a candidate like no other and if he wins will be a president like no other as well. He has tapped a wellspring of voters that felt marginalised and whose ‘values’ were poorly represented by the political mainstream. He stormed the Republican barricades and took them. Whether he can storm and take the White House is another question entirely, but the answer today has to be a definite maybe.

Scroll forward a week and the Democratic National Convention and an event just as groundbreaking. Hilary Rodham Clinton is to be the Democratic Party candidate for the presidency. The convention that selected her was both similar and very different from the one that selected Trump. For one thing it had some truly great speeches, the standout being that by Michelle Obama who may have been putting down a marker for the 2020 election. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama spoke from the heart as well and even Bernie Sanders and his fractious supporters were something close to gracious in defeat.

Like Trump, Clinton is a deeply divisive candidate and is going to have to work hard at the divide in the Democrat Party between now and November. She has a credibility problem with the never-going-away email ‘scandal’ and is seen still as an establishment figure, aloof and coolly distant. Unlike Trump she has a feel for the management of the greatest office of state, both as first lady and as secretary of state and unlike Trump is a woman. It may be that single factor that will either propel her into the history books or dump her. Either could happen.

The coming months are going to be bloody, unpleasant to look at and listen to. Various pollsters have Trump and Clinton close in terms of votes, but there is a sense that the former may be currently in front by a nose. November the 7, 2016 is going to be a pivotal day not just for America but for the rest of the world also. Whatever the outcome, nothing is ever going to be quite the same as it was on November 6 and truly we are all going to be witnesses to history being made.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 31^st, 2016.

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