Terror proliferates

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have played softball with extremist elements and IS has moved quietly in the background

Bangladesh has not until recently been thought of as a hub of terrorism, but the last three years have seen a steady rise in attacks on secular bloggers and members of minority faiths. Terrorism moved upscale with the attack that left 20 foreigners dead at a popular Dhaka cafe and it was followed days later by an attack on a gathering celebrating the end of the holy month of Ramazan. Seemingly all of the attacks have been carried out by Bangladeshis, there does not appear to be any foreign involvement and the state maintains a consistent position of denial vis-a-vis the involvement, or presence, of the group that calls itself the Islamic State (IS).

As noted in these columns previously, the IS has forced a rethink of how terrorism is understood and managed, and although analysts and the commentariat generally have re-swung their compasses, states have been slow to do so, preferring to remain in denial. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have been unable to move from this outdated position, and both are now as well as in the future going to pay the price of their obduracy. Both states have played softball with extremist elements and the IS has moved quietly in the background, having been ceded space by virtue of the denial of their existence as an operational entity in either. With both states facing a common threat, albeit with localised manifestations, there may be an opportunity to pool both resources and experience — admittedly a move fraught with political hazards — to address what is an emerging sub-continental problem. It is probably a mere matter of time before there is an event in India that will be claimed by the IS and the chain will be complete.

The recent attacks in Bangladesh display considerable complexity, involving several participants and a range of weapons and devices. This is indicative of a mature terrorist infrastructure that did not spring up overnight. The IS does not open offices to gain recruits, it is far more subtle and nuanced than that, occupying instead hearts and minds rather than territory. A new threat demands a new mindset to counter it, and the window of opportunity to create that is closing by the day.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 10^th, 2016.

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