An overcast homecoming for the PM

There are worries about the political showers due post-Eid as the PM returns to the land of no dull moments

With early monsoon rains lashing parts of Pakistan, there are more worries about the political showers due after Eid as the prime minister returns to the land with no dull moments. The PPP that stood with Nawaz Sharif during the 2014 dharna is suddenly in top gear aiming not only at his office but is also trying to sharp-shoot his near and dear ones. Talk of sweet revenge for removal of Yousaf Raza Gilani as prime minister and for the Memogate affair is also in the air. It is another matter that the main character in the Memogate affair has been clearly abandoned in the ‘national’ interest (translate this as political expediency to patch up with an irritated establishment). Yes, there are no permanent friends, but interests.

The PTI despite its infightings remains the only party in the opposition to have brought thousands of its supporters on the streets in the past. Notwithstanding his somersaults and political U-turns and roundabouts, Imran Khan deserves credit for keeping his party organisation as efficient as a well-oiled machine.

Both the PPP and the PTI, which have blasted each other over issues of governance, democracy, terrorism and foreign policy, have suddenly decided to bury the hatchet and join hands “to cleanse the country of the corruption of the Sharifs”. A combination of litigation and street tactics would be used by both parties after Eid to get rid of the ‘dynastic’ politics of the Sharifs but their success depends upon many factors beyond their control.

Consider: what would courts and the Election Commission of Pakistan do on a host of cases is hard to predict but one can safely predict the environment — a new wave of protests will emerge. The PTI has announced that it will take the fight to the Sharifs in Lahore where they enjoy a good support network going back at least four decades. With Tahirul Qadri back in action, the possibility of trouble for the Sharifs lurks in Lahore. The PPP in Punjab, however, is not in a great position to ignite the masses. The revolutionary leaders of yesteryear may have the fervour but they seriously lack the mass support they enjoyed in the 1970s, 1980s and even the 1990s. Most of the PPP’s support base shifted to the PTI in the last three years. In Sindh, it is in power and would not go for dissolution of assemblies and its government unless there is a ‘big nod’ for this course of action. It is hard to imagine the PPP playing any big gamble.

The beauty of the 2013 elections is that it has eliminated major opposition parties. All three big parties, the PML-N, the PPP and the PTI are ruling parties enjoying their piece of the power pie. While each party has enough in its tanks to fire at the other, none has great stories of their governance in the areas they rule. Looking at the post-Eid scenario, one can safely say that no revolutionary situation exists in the country that would bring millions of the Pakistani electorate onto the streets, removing the Nawaz government by force. Despite many follies of the government, there is no major public issue that is agitating the minds of millions in the country. In a country that is corrupt from top to bottom, corruption is not something people will come out and remove an elected government for before its tenure is up.

The biggest casualty of the brewing storm over the Margallas is democracy itself. The democratic model that mainly serves the interests of a small minority of traders, big business, landed aristocracy and civil and military bureaucracy has no interest in changing the rules of the game and broadening the base of democracy. Electoral reforms, campaign finance reforms, creation of an independent accountability commission have fallen by the wayside. As the political mercury hits high notes, the possibility of reforming the system would further decrease. The only result of the about-to-ensue confrontation will be further deterioration of the public image of politicians. Anybody looking from the establishment’s side will only smile and hope for a hung parliament in the next elections giving birth to a weak, fractured government, ready to sign the dotted line.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 3^rd, 2016.

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