How serious is India?

Narendra Modi has said it is difficult to decide who to talk to about the peace process in Islamabad

It is more than likely that the question that forms our headline is also being asked across the border — how serious is Pakistan? India is in a dynamic phase, with a prime minister that is active on the international as well as global stage, membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group still sought despite a recent denial, and membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) now achieved. This will clearly feed through to support for the NSG application and some analysts are speculating that this could become a reality by the end of the year. By contrast, Pakistan with an absent and silent prime minister is running on autopilot at least for the next fortnight. The peace initiative with Afghanistan has run into the sand yet again, domestic terrorism management is patchy at best and faltering in Karachi, foreign policy appears to be made up on the hoof and the messages that are coming from the prime minister’s adviser Sartaj Aziz are far from positive, saying that he was sceptical about any normalisation in relations in the foreseeable future, citing Indian demands that “normalisation” be on their terms only.



Into the mix, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that from the Indian perspective, it is difficult to decide who to talk to about the peace process in Islamabad. He made an opaque comment about with whom the so-called “red lines” were to be decided, and whether it was with the elected government or “other actors”.

As things stand neither side appears to have the capacity or the will to break out of the sterile positions they have occupied for decades, notwithstanding the encouraging noises made by Mr Modi at various points in his tenure. Our own Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is not in play and his proxies are running a holding operation. The relative dynamism of India across a number of fronts (not just the peace process) compared to a breathless and stumbling Pakistan is unedifying. Is India serious about the peace process? Probably not, it has other fish to fry. Is Pakistan serious about it? The most likely answer to that is that it simply does not know.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 29^th, 2016.

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