Global financial markets plunged on Friday as results from a referendum defied bookmakers’ odds to show a 52-48 per cent victory for the campaign to leave a bloc Britain joined more than 40 years ago.
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The pound fell as much as 10 per cent against the dollar to touch levels last seen in 1985, on fears the decision could hit investment in the world’s fifth-largest economy, threaten London’s role as a global financial capital and usher in months of political uncertainty.
The Euro slid three per cent. World stocks saw more than $2 trillion wiped off their value. Big banks took a battering, with Lloyds, Barclays and RBS falling as much as 30 per cent. Britain’s FTSE 100 stock index recovered much of its early losses by the end of the day after the world’s main central banks offered financial backstops.
The United Kingdom itself could now break apart, with the leader of Scotland – where nearly two-thirds of voters wanted to stay in the EU – saying a new referendum on independence from the rest of Britain was ‘highly likely’.
An emotional Cameron, who led the ‘Remain’ campaign to defeat, losing the gamble he took when he promised the referendum in 2013, said he would leave office by October.
“The British people have made the very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction,” he said in a televised address outside his residence. “I do not think it would be right for me to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination,” he added, choking back tears before walking back through 10 Downing Street’s black door with his arm around his wife Samantha.
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Quitting the world’s biggest trading bloc could cost Britain access to the trade barrier-free single market and means it must seek new trade accords with countries around the world. A poll of economists by Reuters predicted Britain was likelier than not to fall into recession within a year.
The EU, which rose out of the ashes of two world wars fascist and communist totalitarianism to unite a continent of prosperous democracies, faces economic and political damage without Britain, which has the EU’s biggest financial centre, a UN Security Council veto, a powerful army and nuclear weapons.
“It’s an explosive shock. At stake is the break up pure and simple of the union,” French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said.
“Now is the time to invent another Europe.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who invited the French and Italian leaders to Berlin to discuss future steps, called it a watershed for European unification. Her foreign minister, who will with France present other EU founding members with a plan for a flexible EU today (Saturday), called it a sad day for Britain and Europe.
The result emboldened eurosceptics in other member states, with French National Front leader Marine Le Pen and Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders demanding their countries also hold referendums. Le Pen changed her Twitter profile picture to a Union Jack and declared ‘victory for freedom!’
The vote will trigger at least two years of divorce proceedings with the EU.
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Cameron, in office since 2010, said it would be up to his successor to formally start the exit process. His Conservative Party rival Boris Johnson, the former London mayor who became the most recognisable face of the Leave camp, is now widely tipped to seek his job.
There was euphoria among Britain’s eurosceptic forces, claiming a victory over the political establishment, big business and foreign leaders including US President Barack Obama who had urged Britain to stay in. “Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day,” said Nigel Farage, leader of the eurosceptic UK Independence Party.
US presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose own rise has been fuelled by similar anger at the political establishment, called the vote a ‘great thing’. Britons “took back control of their country”, he said in Scotland where he was opening a golf resort.
Obama said he respected the UK vote to leave, and that the United States’ relationship with Britain would endure.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 25th, 2016.
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