Analysis: Are budget targets realistic or a fool’s paradise?

It would be wise if attention is given to underprivileged districts in ADP spending

PESHAWAR: If the government misses realistic targets again and again, it is called inefficiency. However, if it sets unrealistic targets to begin with, there is a serious governance problem.

In 2015-16, total revenue and expenditure targets were set to Rs487 billion. Midway, the K-P government budget planners realised these were unfeasible targets and brought that figure down to Rs431 billion. Now, authorities want us to believe that a Rs505 billion revenue target is quite achievable in 2016-17.

No one will provide an explanation in the corridors of power in the K-P government and explain why the target was missed in the outgoing fiscal year and how it will be achieved this time around.

Similarly, the K-P government estimated a whopping Rs51.8 billion Net Hydel Profit arrears in the outgoing fiscal year and secured only Rs25 billion. The provincial government does not seem to have realised the revenue and expenditure targets from foreign assistance. In the outgoing fiscal year, the revenue targets from foreign sources were estimated to be Rs32.8 billion, but later revised to Rs16.8 billion. Now we are again told by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-led coalition government that a revenue of Rs36 billion is quite possible from the foreign projects in 2016-17.



Can anyone possibly explain why a target of Rs32.8 billion was unrealistic in the outgoing fiscal year and Rs36 billion is achievable in 2016-17?

Under such circumstances, one wonders why foreign donors have suddenly started loving K-P. They may have their own excuses for not funding K-P according to local expectations, but the major reason appears to be related to the capacity of the provincial government to utilise funds on time.



Cause and effect

As the brunt of the revenue shortfall can be observed by development expenditures, the total Annual Development Programme (ADP) for the outgoing fiscal year was lowered to Rs135 billion from the estimated Rs174.4 billion. The district suffered the most as a result as their ADP was reduced from Rs30 billion to Rs15 billion. This went entirely against the K-P government’s claims of empowering local governments.

Moreover, the ADP for districts is Rs33 billion in the new budget. One can only hope that this amount is spent on the districts through elected local governments and not cut to half. The figure itself is not 30% of the total ADP as promised under the local government act.

To focus on the underprivileged districts of K-P in terms of spending would be a wise move by the K-P government

However, when it comes to expenditure, the constituencies that have powerful MPAs from the treasury benches take a good chunk under the chief minister’s discretionary directives.

Those districts which have representation from opposition members are often ignored. The chief minister should devise some equity in distribution of discretionary development funds amongst all MPAs and constituencies.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 17^th, 2016.