India’s bid for NSG berth dangles precariously

All NSG members have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty; however, India has refused to do so

KOHAT: The global nuclear proliferation watchdog is meeting on June 9 where, besides other matters, India’s membership application will also be considered. But America’s most influential daily says India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is “not merited until the country meets the group’s standards.”

Not only that, analysts in the United States believe India’s application is in a precarious position for several reasons, chief among them being China’s assertion that if the NSG countries make an exception for India, they should do the same for Pakistan.

NSG’s member states have signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) but India has refused to do so, which means “it has not accepted legally binding commitments to pursue disarmament negotiations, halt the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and not test nuclear weapons,” writes the New York Times (NYT).

President Barack Obama could take advantage of the US-India ties and push for India’s adherence to nuclear proliferation standards. However, the US has for years “sought to bend the rules for India’s nuclear programme” to maintain a cooperative relationship to counter growing Chinese influence in the region, and Obama has been lobbying for India to gain NSG membership, reads the editorial said.

As part of a 2008 deal signed with the US during the Bush Jr era, India promised it would be “ready to assume the same responsibilities and practices” as other member states, but has fallen short by continuing to produce fissile material and expand its nuclear arsenal, the NYT said.

If India is successful in gaining entry to the group, it could keep Pakistan from gaining membership because group decisions are made through consensus. “That could give Pakistan, which at one time provided nuclear technology to North Korea and Iran, new incentives to misbehave,” the NYT said. However, the NYT said, China’s opposition to India could doom the South Asian power’s bid for membership “for now”.

The editorial goes on to say that India should be required to meet the NSG’s standards, “including opening negotiations with Pakistan and China on curbing nuclear weapons and halting the production of nuclear fuel for bombs”.

American experts say China may not oppose India’s membership bid, but it may argue in favour of membership of Pakistan which has also moved an application in the NSG. “Pakistan and China have played their cards really well this time around. Pakistan has an application for NSG membership and China can, therefore, argue what’s good for the goose is good for the gander,” said Micheal Krepon, a nuclear proliferation expert and co-founder of the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington DC.

According to Krepon, the Chinese will underline the point that if the NSG makes an exception for India, the informal group of nations should allow Pakistan in too and that will compound the nuclear proliferation consequences because India becomes saddled with Pakistan’s terrible track record.

US experts say it is a fact that Pakistan’s nuclear programme, from concept to delivery, is dependent on supplies from China. The heavy water plant and the plutonium production reactors at Khushab were made with Chinese assistance. In the civil nuclear field also, Beijing assisted Islamabad with the construction of nuclear power plants at Chashma.

“It would be very surprising if China lets India in without an equal concession for Pakistan,” said Colin Cookman, program officer at the US Institute of Peace.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 6^th, 2016.