Population census — the larger picture

The holding of the long-awaited population census in the country is now surrounded by even more uncertainty. The exercise has been postponed for an indefinite period. The decision was taken by the Council of Common Interests at its meeting which was chaired by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and was attended by all chief ministers. The move has been shelved apparently on account of the non-availability of army personnel in adequate strength to provide security cover to the enumerating staff working in all parts of the country during the marathon exercise. The provinces do not seem inclined to undertake the census without the security cover. This is indeed a reflection of the capacity and resolve of the provinces to undertake the function on their own. This mindset, to fall back on the assistance of the army in the discharge of normal chores, is gaining ground and acceptability with the civil administration. It may well be recalled that in the early years of Pakistan when we still had the most populous province of East Pakistan with us as well as fairly complex issues to face, this exercise was carried out without the army’s assistance. The first census was held in 1951 when the country’s political conditions were very uncertain.

According to some quarters, the demand to have security cover under the given circumstances is unavoidable. Other than security issues, there were creeping fears in some provinces about under- or over-enumeration. The pale of mistrust looms large over the heads of various stakeholders. The situation, therefore, necessitates active association of a third party, which can provide the requisite security while also extending oversight to ensure sound and accurate enumeration of information and collection of data at the household level. Accuracy of the number count is indeed one of the end objectives of the exercise.

The importance of holding a census after regular intervals cannot be over-emphasised. The exercise throws up valuable information and a reservoir of data, which helps in planning for socioeconomic uplift, designing of policies for allocation and redistribution of resources, and forming of strategies for alleviating hardcore and relative poverty. The population census invariably is coupled with a household survey, which provides a clear picture of the living conditions at a particular habitat, the quality of civic amenities, the profile of the residents of a house and composition of the family structure. Demographers are in a position to interpret these characteristics for further use as policy input. Demographic features of gender, age profile, marital status and family size are some of those variables, which may help in designing social policies, understand related issues and formulating a response. Data on mother tongue, the level of literacy and ethnic profile also present a picture of the different groups competing for a share in the pie.

Language-based ethnicity in a pluralistic society like Pakistan’s is indeed a distinct marker with strong economic and political undercurrents. It has quite often been made the basis for various rights movements. We have not been able to use this marker with nuance in our public policy framework. We tend to identify this critical marker only with existing provincial boundaries for political and economic dispensations. What is ignored is that within the existing provinces, there is distinct diversity, which is not being addressed through institutional mechanisms. This state of affairs continues to cause deep-seated political unease. As a result, we find some population groups asserting their presence along ethnic lines, which is more often than not translated into a political narrative.

In Pakistan, the population census has been a fairly sensitive issue for a host of reasons. It is indeed the foundation on which we have chosen to raise the political and financial superstructure. For the purposes of representation and resource distribution amongst the federating units, over-reliance on the single critical variable of population brings to fore its significance. During the first-ever census held in 1951, numerical strength of Bengalis living in the eastern part of the country was established over and above the numbers of any other ethnicity in Pakistan. This trend was reaffirmed in the 1961 census. In the early years of Pakistan, there was a consensus amongst all political quarters to make the country a parliamentary democracy. That was also the underlying spirit in the efforts to draft the Constitution. As a consequence, representation in parliament had to be based on population. The Bengalis lay all hope on the democratic political process in view of their distinct majority. Their leadership felt that their clear majority would give them a decisive say in a true parliamentary decision-making set-up. But in 1971 when the crunch came, the Bengalis were not only denied their claim to form the government, but to the disconcert and indignation of the people of East Pakistan, convening of the assembly for framing the new constitution was also shelved. The rest, as they say, is history.

Under the 1973 Constitution, the seats in the National Assembly are allocated to the provinces, the tribal areas and the capital territory on the basis of population in accordance with the last preceding census. Constitutional stipulation, therefore, underlines the need and significance of holding the census regularly. It further alludes to the fact that our present representation is based on figures, which are 17-year-old. There had been reported gerrymandering in delimiting the constituencies to benefit certain groups, which now also requires rationalisation. A lot of groundwork is needed, with the next general elections just two years away. The National Finance Commission Award, transferring financial resources to the provinces, is also based on the critical parameter of population. We have been able to add more factors in the basket for distributing financial resources to the federating units, but population still constitutes the largest determining factor. The same holds good for inductions into the federal bureaucracy, key departments and state-owned enterprises.

Pakistan is passing through a demographic transition where we have to take care of our youth bulge. We need to come up with employable interventions to hone this potential resource. Paradoxically, this is the bracket, which is producing internationally-acclaimed high-achievers and suicide bombers at the same time. There are some issues at the ground level, which should also be mulled over. There is growing concern in some provinces about migratory movements within the country. Settled urban clusters are working as a pull factor for the inflow of population in different spatial domains. Karachi’s exponential growth and an over-stretching of municipal infrastructure can be understood in this backdrop. It takes a while for such a swathe to settle down. There is a transactional cost for the host province and a charge on its resource base. There is a need to factor in the effects of these migratory movements in the formula for the distribution of resources and in the NFC Award. It will be unfair to base the future NFC Award or the general elections in 2018 on a denominator that would be almost two-decade-old. Any extrapolation of the numbers would not help either way. This requires moving with speed and greater clarity. We need to ensure that all arrangements for an early and smooth conduct of the census are in place. Any further delay will not bode well.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 22^nd, 2016.

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