A different type of animal

Denying the presence of IS in Pakistan is as futile as denying that , the determination of the area of a circle

Yet again these pages and the pages of other newspapers have been the forum in which government officials and ministers have been the ones in which the denial of the presence of Islamic State (IS) has been robustly advanced. Rebuttals are generally made in measured tones the better not to upset the delicate sensibilities of the shrinking violets in the Interior Ministry and the Foreign Office, with both seemingly deaf to all except their own perceptions in this matter. IS? There is no IS here. Watching this to and fro on a daily basis, it occurred to me that there was something wrong but it did not jump out at me for months. Then I got it, just in the last week. The critical dysjunction that in this instance creates a dangerous denial of reality is this — they don’t get it. They just don’t get it.

Others do — perhaps Bob Fisk writing in The Independent and Tom Hussain (a Pakistani journalist) of The World Weekly to name but two — and they are not alone. What Hussain articulated in a long and thoughtful piece recently titled “Islamic State creeps East” is just how different IS is to virtually any other terrorist group. Now or indeed ever before.

The creep eastwards by IS was encapsulated in an editorial in this newspaper which talked of the IS using a classic and time-tested guerilla tactic — “infiltrate, consolidate and attack”. The IS does not have territorial ambitions here in Pakistan, at least not just yet, and if it ever gets to the point of critical mass here it will not be making grand military moves but moves within the bureaucracy, the fundamentals of governance, schools and universities and other institutions of state.

‘Attack’ in this context may not be with bombs and bullets though they will undoubtedly feature at various points along the way. ‘Attack’ will come slowly and perhaps almost unnoticed in some instances and it may already be under way. Some analysts and observers, myself included, certainly think so.

In seeking to spread eastwards, and the huge Muslim populations of Indonesia and Malaysia are well within its sights, IS is going to need stepping stones along the way. Enter Pakistan. For the ‘infiltrate, consolidate, attack’ strategy Pakistan is a sitting duck. For one thing it is virtually defenceless. Ideas, attractive ideas, spread like pollen on the wind. Unattractive as many reading these words may think those ideas, to others they are music to their ears. Music that sings songs of social justice, of a desire to battle corruption, of a hearkening back to a mythical Muslim Golden Age. The answer to their dreams and in all probability to their prayers as well.

Defenceless? Of course we are not defenceless! Look at our army and the wonderful work that they have been doing to battle terrorism in the last year. Indeed they have — but the army has been battling terrorism, not countering it. The countering is the job of the civilians, and thus far they have failed miserably, and over many years.

The fight against IS is not being won by Pakistan because IS has gone for the jugular, the greatest point of vulnerability right from the outset. The people. This is a population that has, in its majority, shifted over the last 20 years to being one which is radicalised, intolerant, and highly receptive to the kinds of ideals and ideas espoused by IS. It is a population critically divided across sectarian fault lines, a fact that the demons of IS have fallen on avidly and will exploit in the future.

Sectarianism is manna to the strategists of IS, ambrosia, and with the state having no tool with which to counter sectarianism — indeed one might suspect a distinctly nurturing tendency in some quarters — all IS has to do is walk in, say ‘thanks very much’, drink a lot of tea and settle in for the long haul.

Denying the presence of IS in Pakistan is as futile as denying that A=πr², the determination of the area of a circle. But not everybody gets that, and until they do the inner darkness is busy creeping eastwards, taking hearts and minds in Pakistan along with it.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 18^th,  2016.

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