Pakistan

‘Economy cannot afford more military offensives’

Finance ministry officials fear the defence budget could swell beyond control.

Zia Khan January 15, 2011

ISLAMABAD: The finance ministry has said that Pakistan’s troubled economy cannot indigenously afford more military offensives if the government continues to compromise economic reforms for political concessions.

“The defence budget can rise abruptly if another military venture is launched. That will be unbearable for the economy,” an official was quoted as telling Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani during a mid-year economic review meeting.

The warning came amid reports that the US was pushing Pakistan to send troops into North Waziristan to take on the Haqqani network. Experts say this can be one of the most expensive military campaigns undertaken so far. Earlier this week, both political and military leaders told US Vice-President Joe Biden during his Islamabad visit that they would consider sending the army into the border regions only at a time of their choosing.

The word of caution by finance authorities to the beleaguered administration comes less than a fornight after the government reversed an increase in fuel prices to appease protesting opposition groups.

“Since these are testing circumstances, tough and unpopular decisions need to be taken. Failing that, we will be further complicating our economic troubles,” an official told The Express Tribune what transpired during the meeting. Officials said that the finance ministry had warned the government that a fiscal deficit for the ongoing financial year could touch 7.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product instead of an original estimate of 6.5 per cent if drastic measures were not taken to jack up revenue collection or control expenditure.

Meanwhile, a statement issued by the prime minister’s media office quoted Gilani as saying that the economic challenges of Pakistan would be shared with parliament to seek their proposals for resolving the financial difficulties of the country and the people.

“The objective behind the reconciliatory process and consultation with political leadership is to develop consensus and take decisions in the larger national interest,” Gilani told the meeting.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 15^th, 2011.

COMMENTS (17)

R S JOHAR | 13 years ago | Reply I agree with Anoop that Americans will start moving out of Afghanistan as planned because of its economy going downwards, rising casualities, no gains being made on the war front and declining popularity due to same . Obama has been on the job hunting spree for his countrymen in India and China and its budget deficit runs into trillion of dollars. Under such compelling circumstaces how long Americans can sustain the ongoing war as well as support Pakistan financially. As far as NWA operations are concerned, Pakistan appears to be reluctant and have already decided to put Haqqani group back to power even though many analysts see it as harakiri. As long as the terror organisation are active in Pakistan no progress is possible and there is going to be more bloodshed in the country.

Anoop | 13 years ago | Reply @Nazir Habib, You are partially right. But, some things are surely going to happen. 1) US will start evacuation plans from Afghanistan. 2) When that happens, consequently US will start pressurizing the Pakistan Government,scratch that, Military. 3) After pull out there will be tremendous pressure put on and punitive actions taken against Pakistan by NATO, in varying degree. Only the time-line may change. But, all the above things will happen and I think are inevitable.

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Robin | 13 years ago | Reply "Fighting the ‘terror triangle’ (American, Indian and Israeli) sponsored TTP is enough." @ NazirHabib That was the genius of a sentence; Israelis and Indians along with US are supporting TTP. The foucs of Pak Army and People is in the right direction. It is only a matter of time that Hindu-JEW-US terror triangle will be destroyed - INSHALLAH

Nazir Habib | 13 years ago | Reply Khurram bhai: our thoughts cruise on the same platform and we are in agreement. Thank you brother. Anoop: Conjecturing on what will happen tomorrow and after three years when hopefully the ISAF, NATO and the American forces leave, is wasting time. Please dont underestimate the human spirit moreso the one that is guided by a unitary direction. Keep guessing. Salams for 2011 and ever.

Cautious | 13 years ago | Reply In case you didn't know it - your big expensive army is very expensive whether it actually fights or sits around and tries to look tough. If your not going to use it then why not shrink it or better yet get rid of it.

The Only Normal Person Here. | 13 years ago | Reply It will get more difficult when US Troops start to pull out from Afghanistan.

Anoop | 13 years ago | Reply @abdullah, Show me one serious analyst who shares your view. Americans see it as another Vietnam. Most guys who have inside information like Bruce Riedel think that war cannot be won unless safe havens in Pakistan are destroyed, which he also agrees is a remote possibility. Some like Mullen have gone on to say the same thing. With elections coming up for Obama, he'll start the withdrawal process. Remember you guys thought in Iraq too that Americans will never leave because of Oil. But, they did and they completed the whole process under 1 and a half years. Compared to Iraq, Afghanistan has no worthy Mineral resources and hell for American Soldiers. Not only that US has to pay, not just its own bills, but Pakistan's too. With a post-recession USA that is not feasible. What I think is there will be a de facto partition of Afghanistan. The areas bordering Pakistan will be controlled by the Taliban. And, rest will be controlled by NA and other war lords. Robert Backwill also has suggested this could happen. My only concern is India is not affected in anyway by this. But, Pakistan, like always act as a buffer for India(Look at the irony). But, the Pakistani state will pay the price for supporting a ruthless bunch of fanatics.

abdullah | 13 years ago | Reply @anoop dnt wory biden on his recent visit to pak has said that they wont leave until the afghan gov is ready 2 takeover which can only strt in 2017 .. and this is the right thing v shuld not get in2 it unless we dont clean up the previous mess americans and the nato have dne the same thing in afghanistan ,they went everywhere and could not get sucesss. complete clearence should b done b4 v get in2 another operation..we do need it but know is not the right time...the worst is that wen the army goes behind them they run 2 afghanistan and later on they cme bak ..the border is too big and mountanious that its really hard 2 control

khalidzaheen | 13 years ago | Reply Assalam-o-Allaikum .pakistan economic conditions r going worse to more worse day by day.there is no more foriegn investments in pakistan .goverment is creating no more jobs.inflation is constantly rising .in these worse conditions of the country our army decided to take extra money from the budget 100 billion rupees more than thier prevoius budget .they r in race with indian army indian economy is much larger than pakistani economy .indian military is buying weapons from different countries .actually they have money thats why they r buying our country economic status which is under 55 billion dollars external debt does not support these expenditures .our military have to realise this fact.

Anoop | 13 years ago | Reply Pakistan will be stuck in a Catch-22 situation. On the one hand US and the West gives aid to Pakistan believing that it will fight the Terrorists which target the West, aid that Pakistan is desperately dependent on.. Now, if Pakistan sends signals that it will not go ahead with the Operation, then the Aid will promptly withdrawn, the Pakistani Economy will fall or go into the ICU. Come 2014, when the NATO pulls out of Afghanistan, things will get only tough for Pakistan.

Khurram | 13 years ago | Reply @Nazir Habib, Sir I would like to say since I can claim to have some knowledge of the history, the problems on the Eastern Front are our own making. If I may ask you all the four wars (Kashmir 1947to Kargil 1999) we fought with India when did India attack us. "We are not doing the US's bidding anymore" only if wishes were horses, sir, we are a beggar state simply to stay afloat we have to be somebody's lacky if we are not doing America's bidding then its the Chineses. Now what is the advantage of having all those nuclear bombs as a deterent if our defence budget keep on bloating out of proportion while we lost most of the western frontier to the talibans and their ilk. What we need the most at this moment is a serious introspection of ourselves and our needs as a nation if we wish to come out of the mess our myopic leaders has created for us.

Matt | 13 years ago | Reply There will be no offensive in North Waziristan, no Sam they have nuclear weapons and will use tactical nuclear weapons against the strongholds in no mans land.

Sam | 13 years ago | Reply Perhaps the Pakistani generals should watch events in Tunisia!

Ahmer Ali | 13 years ago | Reply Assalam-o-Allaikum Warahmatullah.Very effrontery statement because if Pakistan can afford useless international tours of the leaders with a lot of members and if Pakistan can afford unlimited and kingly expenditures of kingly army of leaders',ministers' and bureaucrats' life styles and security expenses then why military expenditures are seeing huge and unaffordable?

abdullah | 13 years ago | Reply dont get in2 an other 1 for god sake leave something 4 the economy 2 plzzzzzzzzzzzz

Nazir Habib | 13 years ago | Reply Why should our Army fight our own people? Fighting the 'terror triangle' (American, Indian and Israeli) sponsored TTP is enough. No more fighting America's war. We have our perennial problem on our eastern border. No more fighting our own people. The pseudo melliflous music of the Indians came at a time when Biden was in the region. We are not doing the US bidding anymore. These offers of aid are nothing but bribes and the Americans and Pakistanis are famous in the bribery and corruption game. The fiscal deficit is roaring in our face, inflation is creating empty stomachs, families are committing suicide and families are breaking apart, industry is in the 'rustic' mode and internecine warfare is spreading its deathly tentacles in Karachi. The 170 million citizens have to live in 'real time' 21st century and put their heads together to sort things out. Exile people who are persistently creating mischief and want to live abroad (this is one of the four punishments prescribed in the Quran Kareem). Salams and best wishes for 2011.

Amadeus | 13 years ago | Reply The defense budget is already greater than the development budget. Seriously, what more do these guys want.

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