Doves and demons in the Gulf

For Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the West's lifting of sanctions last week is quite the victory lap

At last, at last, the Republic steps up. Or, at least, that’s what we hear from Pakistan’s media mills — the white and green is tiptoeing out onto the world stage again, with olive branches for everyone. May we hear that most meaningless phrase again: ‘a just and lasting peace in the Middle East?’

We may not get the chance: the House of Saud has worked itself into a tizzy, executing convicts and bombing Yemen into a pile of ashes — all so that Iran may be kept at bay. And because this is playground politics, the rest of its boys are piling on: the world woke up to the shocking news that Comoros just broke off relations with Tehran.

Well, hurray for Comoros, with a population numbering less than Islamabad’s (a fellow island nation). We knew not your name before, and we wave goodbye as you fade into the ether again.

But why all the sound and fury? Sadly, this constant punching and pouting and embassy-storming is the new normal, ever since the US drew down. After turning the Middle East into a smouldering black hole, Uncle Sam is telling the other players to make nice — and that’s not sitting well with the brothers from Riyadh.

“Cut off the head of the snake,” King Abdullah had told Washington, and blow up whatever nuclear facilities Tehran has. But that was 2010.

In 2016, the US is content with de-fanging said snake instead, if in instalments. Thus Javad Zarif’s million-dollar-smile: the West lifted sanctions last week, and for Iran’s foreign minister, that’s quite the victory lap.

If in one field: while the kingdom schemes against Persia, Persia’s started acting like Empire again, backing some of the deadliest predators on the planet. As Hunter S Thompson once said of another president, Syria’s Assad is a tall hyena with a living sheep in its mouth. The former eye doctor continues starving and gassing his own people into the ground.

But long before Putin, it was Iran — and only Iran — protecting the Ba’athists. Even elsewhere, the ayatollahs are ascendant: as the Houthis continue to hold on to Yemen, and Hezbollah goes from strength to strength in Lebanon, and Shia militias resume their love-hate affair with the Iraqi army. Make no mistake — Iran is playing the game harder than anyone else. And unlike the kingdom, it’s winning.

Throughout, the Western press has acted like its usual nuanced self: “Ancient Islamic Sunni-Shiite schism inflames a modern world,” read USA Today, and many like it. Those pesky, schismatic Moslems, the press moans, sticking their curved swords in one another since the 7^th century.

While a delightful take on world affairs, the present push-and-pull started as late as ’79: rather than your End-of-Times battle royale, it’s down to power plays between an oil-rich theocracy and, well, another oil-rich theocracy, with sectarian allies as a crutch.

And that brings us to the sticking point in this mess: oil. As sanctions slide off, the world is readying itself for a flood of Iranian black gold (just the thought sent the Saudi stock market plunging five points Sunday). The millions of barrels in Iran’s floating reserves are waiting for the market, one that’s already oversupplied: the price of crude is hitting lows not seen in years, and that’s giving the kingdom jitters.

In short, fear and loathing is at fever pitch, and the usual suspects are fanning the flames. Hezbollah boss Nasrallah called the kingdom’s recent execution of Nimr al-Nimr a “message of blood”. In perhaps the most tragicomic turn of events, the Israeli press threw its lot in with the kingdom instead: in a lecture to the US, The Jerusalem Post said, “Between a staunch ally and a declared enemy, one might well wonder why there is any question of which to support.” And then, lest we forget, adorable little Comoros tried to get a swing in there too.

Enter Pakistan, everyone’s favourite non-allied ally. Of course given the Saudi-Iran context, entry of any sort seems ominous. But a man doth not choose his family, and a land doth not choose its neighbours: Pakistan’s in the middle of it.

But there’s a growing awareness that we’re vulnerable — and it would be a mistake to get complacent just yet — saying Pakistan is somehow immune to the sectarian venom slowly gripping the world post-Zarqawi, is both inaccurate and irrational. The Gulf has financed some of the most vicious sectarian groups in southern Punjab — massacring Shias with abandon — while Iran has recently recruited Pakistani fighters for Assad in Syria.

And since the King and the Supreme Leader unfriended each other at the start of the year, Pakistan has been witness to protests backing either side. This is a nauseating trend, and must be ended.

Which is why we’re all surprised: Pakistan’s making some terrific decisions. For starters, parliament voted to stay out of Yemen in April — over five days of debate, not a single lawmaker supported sending troops. And according to Bruce Riedel, flashbacks to when Egypt bled 20,000 casualties fighting the same Zaydi tribes that back the Houthis, “figures prominently in Pakistani thinking”. The same history’s already played out: the war has become a gruesome affair.

And, despite a depressing statement of support for Assad, Islamabad has also stayed clear of Syria; nor has it see-sawed over to Iran.

Like Talleyrand suing for peace, we see now PM Sharif and General Sharif travelling to both capitals — and calling for sanity to prevail. The PPP, which to its credit began the neutrality policy in Syria, stands vindicated. Even Imran Khan is pitching in, meeting emissaries from both countries and, if one excuses the inexcusable reference, hoping Pakistan’s not a Cornered Tiger between the two.

For our wham-bam politics, this is a sea-change in thought: this is, dare we say, something close to wisdom. But wisdom must now extend inside: in shutting down sectarian thugs for good.

Iran and Saudi may be clawing at each other, but for once, Pakistan’s started making the right moves. Maybe next time, Comoros.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 19^th, 2016.

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