Afghan reconciliation — another beginning?

There is a lot of talking going on, much of it very quietly and not all of it in the public domain. The talks with India due to happen at security adviser level look like they have survived the impact of the Pathankot attack; and now the direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban may be expected to resume within days as a quartet of officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan, America and China met on January 11 to discuss modalities and protocols. These are delicate discussions and not wholly inclusive at this stage as the Taliban have undergone a re-categorisation. Nobody talks of ‘good’ or ‘bad’ Taliban today; instead there are ‘reconcilable’ and ‘irreconcilable’ Taliban groups. The Taliban remain as fragmented as they ever were, which makes any talks difficult to broker, with the ‘irreconcilables’ as far from the table as they can get, keeping their powder dry and watching to see how the ‘reconcilables’ comport themselves in coming days and weeks.



At the January 11 meeting, it was at least agreed that the peace process should be revived without further delay, a position that we strongly support. There are differences, not least between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as to how to deal with the irreconcilables. Kabul favours military action whilst Islamabad counsels a more pacifist approach and that extending a military threat at this point may damage the fragile structures that are beginning to emerge. We agree, if only because the reconcilables at the table were in many cases themselves irreconcilable in the not far distant past. Military threats are more likely to close doors than open them in this instance. The offer of talks must be open to all groups, and the opportunity to gain from a shift in position by any irreconcilable group must remain on the table no matter what. Equally, it is advisable at this stage to have no preconditions and although there is a possibility of ground that has already been gone over being gone over again; then so be it. There is going to be no quick fix, but any fix is better than none. Step carefully. 

Published in The Express Tribune, January 13^th, 2016.

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