It would be sheer naivety on the part of India to view Pakistan as a soft target
ISLAMABAD: Recently, Indian forces carried out surgical strikes inside Myanmar’s territory, reportedly inflicting “significant casualties” which, as per varying estimates, stand at 50-100 militants. The Indian reaction came in response to a militant attack on an Indian military convoy on June 4, which killed 18 Indian soldiers in Chandel district of Manipur. Following the Indian military excursion inside Myanmar, there was a flurry of statements from the Indian political establishment. Terming it revenge, the Indian minister in charge of broadcasting, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, declared the raid “a message for all countries, including Pakistan”. Projecting India’s military and political prowess, he went on to say, “We will strike at a place and at a time of our choosing.” This obviously resulted in stern statements from Pakistan’s political and military leaderships alike.
Here it is important to highlight that the Indian political establishment’s statements are inherently contradictory and give a false impression of India’s military might. The statements drawing parallel between Pakistan and Myanmar may soothe the ears of the BJP’s extremist cult, essentially the RSS, but they fail to stand the test of political correctness and military capability.
First of all, it is erroneous to assume that this was a solo flight by India without prior permission from the government of Myanmar as some initial reports suggested. To put the record straight, there exists a treaty between the two countries, since the 1990s, on cross-border operations and also an agreement that permits cross-border movement of locals within a range of 15km on both sides. In the past, there have been instances when Burmese Army personnel crossed the Indian border in pursuit of Kachin insurgents. Later, in 2010, India signed a mutual legal assistance agreement through which Indian insurgents held in Myanmar could be deported for trial under Indian laws. Therefore, this operation was carried out under existing treaty arrangements. There is no such romanticism vis-a-vis Pakistan. On the contrary, Pakistan and India have a history of border conflicts and Pakistan has made it clear that any such adventurism inside Pakistani territory would be considered an act of war.
Secondly, it would be sheer naivety on the part of India to view Pakistan as a soft target. Politically, it would be difficult for India to carry out such an action without establishing credible proof, as there have been instances in the past when terrorist activity in India blamed on Pakistan was later proved to be perpetrated by Indian extremists. Furthermore, Pakistan maintains a strong professional military force with advanced, high-tech capabilities of responding to any such action. According to a latest report by eminent American analysts, which cites India’s former military officials, the country lacks technical and professional capability to carry out such a strike against Pakistan with complete precision. Various reports corroborate that India does not have the mechanisms to gather the kind of real-time intelligence inside Pakistan that is an essential prerequisite for such an action. Most importantly, both states face altogether different dynamics due to the possession of nuclear weapons. Such a provocative action would certainly let loose an escalation spiral. The inflammatory statements from the Indian political establishment are an act of irresponsible statesmanship. They express the complete absence of political wisdom and ignore ground realities. On the other hand, they further strengthen the rationale on the part of Pakistan to have a strong conventional and nuclear capability to deter any such Indian misadventure.
Sitara Noor
Published in The Express Tribune, June 25th, 2015.
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