Pakistan must welcome the US decision to stay in Afghanistan, as it would be of benefit for the whole region
ISLAMABAD: Afghanistan’s new unity government finally signed the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US, thereby legalising the administrative and security assistance of the US forces in the post-Isaf period of Afghanistan. As a matter of prudence, the US forces, under the agreement, have also got immunity from Afghan courts. The BSA agreement is a realisation on the part of the Obama Administration that it cannot afford to leave Afghanistan at a time when the Middle East is already facing an acute security challenge in the form of the rising IS threat. Afghanistan still faces a threat of the resurgence of the Afghan Taliban, who already control the country’s southern part, particularly the provinces in its southeast near the Pakistan border. If the UN mandated forces — Isaf and Nato — leave Afghanistan in 2016, the threat of civil war may become a distinct reality. Taking guidance from the rise of the IS, the prevailing conditions in Afghanistan are the same as in Iraq. Afghan security forces are not well trained or competent enough to take over the challenge posed by the Afghan Taliban on their own.
The Afghan population, if not entirely supportive of the Afghan Taliban, is not completely against them either. In southern Afghanistan, people support them because this provides them with a practical alternative to the rotten administrative and judicial structure of the Afghan state. Also, the youth there is uneducated and unemployed, and is drawn to the Afghan Taliban’s agenda of gaining power. Like the Maliki government of Iraq, the Karzai regime failed to accommodate the aspirations of Afghanistan’s growing youth population into the state apparatus. One must not ignore the appeal of the IS either. Recently, Hizbul Islam, one of the factions of the Taliban, signalled its willingness to join the IS. If the Afghan Taliban join the IS and replicate its governance model in Afghanistan, any expansion of IS ideology in the region would directly affect Pakistan, China and India, thus creating a new challenge.
So, the only way to save Afghanistan from falling, once again, into a situation where it might drift towards a civil war, is to ensure effective administration and inclusive governance. Since the future of Afghanistan, in terms of the effectiveness of the newly-formed government to tackle the myriad of security challenges, is not certain, the signing of the BSA is a good step. Pakistan, at the same time, must welcome the US decision to stay in Afghanistan, as it would be of benefit for the whole region, in terms of combating the IS threat. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has sent a positive signal to the world that Pakistan is serious about tackling the threat of terrorism from within its borders. Pakistan must use all its diplomatic tools to bring the Afghan government on the same page, given the threats Pakistani forces receive from across the border.
Hassan Shahjehan
Published in The Express Tribune, October 5th, 2014.
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