SURBITON, UK: This is with reference to Aakar Patel’s article, published on August 24, titled “Modi’s first major mistake” especially where he says “This means that he has to sacrifice the other aspects of our relationship, meaning trade and transit and such things, which are all part of the larger dialogue with Pakistan”.
To this I would say that India’s annual exports are $314.4 billion which is about 12.5 times higher than Pakistan’s annual exports of $25.2 billion. India’s annual imports are around $450 billion, approximately 11 times that of Pakistan which are $41.7 billion. India’s population is about six and a half times that of Pakistan and India’s economy is about nine times the size that of Pakistan.
Hence, the quantum of India’s prospective trade with Pakistan can be from zero to insignificant. Regarding transit to the Central Asian Republics (CARs), with the upcoming Iranian Port of Chabahar, India’s trade with the CARs will be a loss for Pakistan.
One would ideally want India-Pakistan trade and transit to foster and grow but with the Pakistani military calling the shots on this one, it becomes difficult to see any realistic chance of this happening any time soon.
One can criticise Modi as much as he wants but the man is obviously taking actions which are accepted by the majority of Indians who have elected him to power. As such, the writer should cut Modi some slack and give him a year or two.
Capt. (retd) Naresh K Wadhera
Published in The Express Tribune, August 28th, 2014.
