What Egypt needs is an inclusive political process, not a regime that is keen to break back of the Muslim Brotherhood.
MEDFORD, MA, US: Six months have passed since the military overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood’s government in Egypt in what has, laughably, been called a ‘soft coup’. With hundreds of Brotherhood leaders in jail and the political party being designated a terrorist organisation, there is nothing ‘soft’ about the coup in Egypt. This week, Egyptians are headed to the polls again, this time in order to approve or reject a newly drafted constitution. The Muslim Brotherhood has vowed to oppose and boycott this referendum, and the government has responded by saying that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure security.
As Pakistanis, we are fully aware of the life cycle of a military dictatorship: the military takes over control from a weak government, civilians across the country are shown celebrating and a referendum is held to envelope an illegal act with a cloak of legitimacy. During this process, charges are brought forth against unyielding politicians and the leadership of political parties is put in jail on questionable charges. The military in Egypt has followed this recipe of success and has largely succeeded.
The long-term implications of this coup will be disastrous, for the military has outlawed and forced a prominent political party underground. This act will strengthen radicals within Egypt and force even the more moderate elements in the Brotherhood to question their strategy. For decades, the Muslim Brotherhood has vowed to come to power through the political process and has shunned militancy and terrorism. Extremists have criticised this strategy and have argued that the group will not be allowed to come to power through free and fair elections. When the Brotherhood won elections six months ago, extremists were proven wrong. However, actions taken by the military have, in hindsight, proved them right.
With violence and instability gripping the entire Middle East, Egypt under military rule, will permit extremists to further develop a radical mentality. It must be remembered that Syed Qutb, the ideological father of al Qaeda, developed his thinking while being persecuted in Egypt. Ayman alZawahiri, the current leader of al Qaeda, is also Egyptian. Under Nasser’s dictatorship, these men were able to hone their skills and propagate their message. The Arab Spring seemed like a turning point as the ideology of Qutb seemed headed towards its death. This is no longer the case and a new generation of Qutbs and Zawahiris is being born under Egypt’s current military dictatorship.
What Egypt needs is an inclusive political process and not a regime that is keen to break the back of the Muslim Brotherhood. If the Muslim Brotherhood is forced to fail, then it will splinter into many radical outfits, which will shun the political process and pick up their guns. With one of the largest populations in the Muslim world, a destabilised Egypt will be a detriment to all regional powers. The military is pushing on with a referendum and like all referendums conducted by military dictatorships, it will win with an overwhelming majority. What Egypt really needs is a civilian government that represents all segments of society. This includes the Muslim Brotherhood, and without it, the future of Egypt looks bleak.
Uzair M Younus
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University
Published in The Express Tribune, January 16th, 2014.
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