Breakthrough in nuclear talks allows both Iran and the US to begin a comprehensive dialogue over mutual interests.
MEDFORD, MA, US: It took classic back door diplomacy and meetings that culminated in the wee hours of the night to achieve what was considered impossible. On November 24, 2013, Iran and six world powers agreed on a preliminary nuclear deal, giving the Iranians modest sanctions relief for agreeing to restrict their nuclear programme and opening up to rigorous inspections. With time, old issues have re-emerged — Iran recently interrupted further talks as a protest against a proposal in the US seeking to increase sanctions. Despite all the ongoing tussling, this recent thaw in relations between Iran and the US is good news for the region and potentially bad news for Pakistan.
In 2002, when the US invasion of Afghanistan was in its early days, the Iranian regime provided intelligence and cooperated extensively with the Bush Administration. Relations took a turn for the worse once President George Bush included Iran in his ‘Axis of Evil’. Iranian influence in Iraq grew so much that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki required Iranian backing and approval in order to be elected. Today, the Iranians are critical in ensuring that Bashar al-Assad survives in Syria and any future agreement in Syria will require Iranian acceptance.
Breakthrough in nuclear talks allows both Iran and the US to begin a comprehensive dialogue over mutual interests. These include the increase in radical groups, the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan and the overall future of the Middle East, particularly Iraq and Syria. Both nations face a common enemy in the form of radical insurgent groups. If things move along smoothly, then we might see a shift in the balance of power in the region as the Iranians begin to exert greater influence.
For Pakistan, this is a time to recognise that relations between nations change over time. While it has had rather respectable relations with Iran over the last few years, things may begin to deteriorate, especially if Pakistan is unable to bring radical groups under control. These have carried out attacks on the Iranian border and the recent mortar attacks by Iran inside Pakistani territory is a sign of growing unease. With the US drawdown from Afghanistan approaching, there will be a fear in Iran of a rising insurgency. While directly destabilising both Afghanistan and Pakistan, this will have repercussions for Iran as well. Pakistan’s failure to control insurgent groups would mean its relations with Iran could worsen. Pakistan will also have to play a delicate game with the Saudis, who will view increasing Iranian influence as a threat to their influence. It will require deft diplomacy, but Pakistan could act as a bridge between Iran and Saudi Arabia, allowing both sides to put past differences aside. However, if the Saudis and Iranians do not negotiate, then Pakistan will find itself in a very tough situation.
As the US tries to build a new relationship with Iran, it is essential that policymakers in Pakistan realise the changing dynamics in the region. Better relations between Iran and the US will not directly impact Pakistan. In fact, they may enable the long-awaited opening of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, giving the economy much-needed energy. However, things might get tricky for Pakistan if it fails to understand that radical groups are a common enemy for all regional powers, including Iran, India, Afghanistan, China and the US. If Pakistan fails to show a commitment towards dealing with radical groups in its own territory, then it risks isolation in the international arena and this is bound to have drastic consequences for the country.
Uzair M Younus
Master’s student, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Tufts University,
Published in The Express Tribune, December 21st, 2013.
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