The postponement of Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan is a great setback.
KARACHI: The postponement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pakistan is bad news for all those who considered the event a major driver in finding a regional solution to the Afghan problem. The visit, along with a quadrilateral meeting on Afghanistan, was being seen as an important game-changer in the context of the ‘new great game’ being played by various internal and external stakeholders in Afghanistan.
For retaining ground troops in Afghanistan in a post-2014 scenario, America’s interest is focused on seeking and securing Soviet-era military bases in Afghanistan. The US has also not disclosed or revealed the likely number of troops it is to leave behind after withdrawal in 2014. The uncertain and unpredictable political situation in Afghanistan may necessitate the presence of a far greater number of foreign troops then what the US may be planning right now and what the rest of the world may be expecting. Whatever the number of troops, the transit routes that will ferry the supplies for them will be under the control of either Russia or Pakistan. This means a lot to the US and any effort on the part of Russia and Pakistan to coordinate their approach and push forward any alternative regional security plans will be viewed with suspicion by America as it will consider her interests being challenged.
Russia is perceived to lead a regional strategy (an alternative strategy) which includes developing comprehensive partnerships with its neighbouring states of Afghanistan as well as the Central Asian Republics and it is doing this in anticipation of the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan. Already, Russia and Tajikistan have agreed on the terms of the continued presence of Russia’s 201 Motorised Division for another 30-year period in Tajikistan. As for the US, it is also hoping to secure basing facilities in Tajikistan. To do this, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is due to visit Dushanbe in the third week of October. A visit by the Russian president to Dushanbe, also in October, is an indicator of the importance the world powers are now attaching to Afghanistan’s neighbours as the date of the US and Nato drawdown nears. Uzbekistan is the other key stakeholder in the regional solution. Seventy-five percent of all supplies for the ISAF transported by ground now cross the Uzbek-Afghan border. If in future there ever is a shutdown of a supply route from Pakistan, the significance of Uzbekistan as a substitute to sustain any foreign troops being kept in the bases in Afghanistan cannot be ruled out.
Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan was being seen as the indicator of the emerging geopolitical reality that Russia and Pakistan have finally realised that they have a commonality of interests, at least in post-2014 Afghanistan. Clearly, the postponement of Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan is a great setback for all those who wanted to see Russia leading the regional solution of the Afghan problem. This unfortunately has now been put on hold.
It is hoped that the visit will eventually take place to show, besides anything else that Russia and Pakistan are eager to put their past behind them and are showing interest in jointly approaching the issues of terrorism and regional security.
It is also hoped that Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani will visit Russia as scheduled this month at the invitation of the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General Nikolai Makarov. His visit will go a long way in communicating to the world that Russia and Pakistan are getting close on military-to-military cooperation.
Eventually Russia and Pakistan have to reach out to each other because in this lies not only the mutual benefit that the two countries will draw but also the greater benefit of exploring peace and stability as joint stakeholders.
Muhammad Ali Ehsan
Published in The Express Tribune, September 30th, 2012.
