ISLAMABAD: Hagler Bailly, a global management consulting firm had warned Pakistan as far back as 2006 that, at its then rate of consumption, the country would soon experience a shortfall in gas.
According to the Pakistan Energy Year Book 2010, the country produces nearly 4,000 MMCFD (millions of cubic feet per day) of natural gas. The largest consumers of gas are the power sector, which makes up 29 per cent and industrial users who consume 26 per cent. This is followed by the fertiliser industry at 17 per cent and transport eight per cent.
This document estimates that demand for gas is projected to increase to 13.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2025 and that supply, at its current rate of increase, would be only 2.17 bcfd.
Until new reserves are discovered or the Thar coal deposits are explored, the government needs to prioritise the distribution of gas. Those sectors should be given priority which are contributing to national output. In this, the media can try and educate the general public so that there can be some mollifying effect on the general public outrage when CNG is shut off at gas stations.
Pakistan’s exports and the overall economic growth and, thereby jobs are largely dependent upon industrial growth. Therefore, the industrial and power sectors should get top priority. Cooking and heating are perhaps the two major consumer uses of the gas and since there is no immediate substitute available, this should also be given due priority.
The economic managers of the last government were imprudent because they encouraged the use of CNG in the transport sector without realising consequences of such consumption. No wonder, Pakistan has among the highest number of vehicles using CNG of any country in the world.
Clearly, sacrifices have to be made if the wheels of industry are to keep rolling. The transport sector should shoulder the burden in this as well. Association of architects, bodies such as the Pakistan Engineering Council and town planners should help by introducing affordable construction technology which could save both construction cost and the use of energy. We as a nation have to tighten our belts if we are determined to fight the crisis.
Syed Asad Hussain
Director, SZABIST
Published in The Express Tribune, January 20th, 2012.
