Donald Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on India reveals the limits of New Delhi’s longstanding, Cold War-era policy of non-alignment. Under Narendra Modi, India’s foreign policy establishment grew overly confident in its ability to maintain warm ties with both Washington and Moscow, assuming it could manage both while enjoying strategic autonomy.
That confidence was most evident in India’s 2018 purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system. Many in Pakistan expected the US to sanction India under CAATSA, as it did with Turkey. Yet India escaped unscathed during Trump’s first term and assumed the same would happen as it continued buying Russian oil, indirectly aiding Putin’s war effort. But Trump 2.0 is a different presidency. In his May address in Riyadh, Trump made it clear: the US has no permanent friends or enemies. India failed to adjust to this recalibration. The result: 25% tariffs.
Pakistan, despite currently enjoying Trump’s goodwill, should tread carefully. As a close ally of China, it could face similar treatment if the US-China tensions escalate. The lesson for both South Asian states is clear: the era of strategic hedging is ending. In Trump’s world, neutrality is increasingly viewed as complicity.
Afnan Wasif
Bologna, Italy
