Mideast: changing dynamics 

Letter December 13, 2024
Mideast: changing dynamics 

Recent events in Syria have prompted some intriguing questions about the future of global politics. With Islamist-led rebels seizing control of Damascus and forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee, ending more than fifty years of Baath Party rule, many are left wondering what comes next for Syria and how this will affect Middle Eastern power dynamics.
One key factor to think about is Russia’s involvement. For years, Russia has been a strong ally of Assad, providing him critical support to stay in power. But now one wonders whether the change in Syria is part of a larger political bargain between Russia and the US. Could it be that the US has agreed to scale back its support for Ukraine in exchange for Russia stepping back from its role in Syria? Additionally, this change might be a component of a broader Russian plan to prevent future hostilities with the West. If this turns out to be the case, the US may be able to swiftly modify its own approach, particularly with regard to Ukraine. For the West, a decrease in Russia’s engagement in Syria would be advantageous, potentially creating more space for regional diplomatic solutions.
Israel, meanwhile, is furthering its interests in Syria, including expanding its territorial control, making the situation even more uncertain. As Russia adjusts its position and world powers consider compromises, the coming months will reveal whether a new balance of power is emerging.
Shafique Rajper
Naushahro Feroze