Cost of war with Iran

Letter January 09, 2020
Any kind of conflict with Iran will eventually result in the seizure of Persian Gulf

KARACHI: Tension between the US and Iran is escalating. The repercussions of the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani might be serious. Iran has already indicated expedition in the process of becoming a nuclear power. The countries having been allied with the US are quite vulnerable. In this instance, Saudi Arabia is on top of the list. There is a general wave of insecurity among countries such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen which may bring these countries closer to make a block with Iran.

The social media is echoed with the beating of war drum. Rumors of the launching of World War 3 have been circulating with ferocious speed and have become top trending. However, the billion-dollar question here is what will the cost be of going to war with Iran? The US has been engaged in war in one way or the other for decades. It should not be a big deal for it to open another avenue of conflict given its humongous budget allocated to cover war expenses. Furthermore, being equipped with ultra-modern technology, the US army is one of the most superior armed forces in the world.

War with a country like Iran will not be an easy task. Iran is surprisingly gifted with a favorable geography. It is surrounded by mountains which make it quite difficult for any country to launch a land attack. Iran has, in the past, blackmailed the US of blockade of Strait of Hormuz. Any kind of conflict with Iran will eventually result in the seizure of Persian Gulf through which approximately 40 percent of oil is supplied, which may eventually lead to the collapse of global economy.

Israel is also quite threatened by the situation. History testifies that super-powers being blinded by their strength have made blunders which have costed them tooth and nail. The US have also been given quite tough time in the Middle East. Following Gaddafi’s overthrow, the US failed to offer leadership and manage the conflict. Egypt, after the elimination of Hosni Mubarak followed by Mohamed Morsi has also been quite challenging to the US. Crisis in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, despite active and heavy involvement of the US, still remain as unsolved conflicts. Time will tell if the killing of General Sulemani is strategic success for the US or a mistake that may cost it heavily.

Tariq Faruqi

Published in The Express Tribune, January 9th, 2020.

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