Can war against terror be won without political consensus?

We will start with a brief resume of history to set the correct context. Pakistan has been inflicted with post 9/11 terrorism for more than twenty years now. US invasion never eliminated terrorists in Afghanistan, it merely swept Afghan Taliban and a plethora of international terrorists across border into Pakistan.

While Afghans simply melted into familiar social landscape, Arabs, Uzbeks and Chechens settled themselves in bordering regions in ex FATA, buying loyalty of local tribes, shelter and protection through paying large cash sums. Though some Army units were moved first into South and then North Waziristan in 2002-2003, sensitive to tribal tradition of protecting guests, state avoided kinetic action against these terrorists.

Meanwhile, foreigners embedded themselves in local communities, growing the size of their cells by recruiting tribal youth who were attracted by a multitude of motives - money, weapons, glamour and adventurism.

As Afghan Taliban reorganized and insurgency started picking up pace in Afghanistan, US threatened Pakistan with hot pursuit if it did not take action against terrorists in FATA. After exhausting all efforts at convincing locals to expel foreigners, Army finally moved against hideouts of Uzbek militants of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in South Waziristan in 2004.

Security forces suffered heavy casualties when local affiliates fully supported IMU terrorist by calling for jihad from mosques’ loud speakers. Initial uncoordinated attacks on military soon gave way to centralized organization under commanders like Nek Muhammad, Abdullah Mehsud, Nazir finally morphing into TTP under Baitullah Mehsud.

TTP has used its perverted religious ideology within a larger social environment made up of factors like tribal traditions of glorifying warriors, hostility towards state control, search for social status, influence and occupational pursuit, to find recruits among lowest strata of tribal society.

Throughout these two and half decades, political ownership of Pakistan’s struggle against terrorism remained wanting. Political leaders who were brave enough to call terrorists for what they really are, were far and few. Benazir Bhutto stands out among all politicians for openly calling terrorism an existential threat to Pakistan.

When Awami National Party (ANP) came into power in K-P in elections of 2008 and its efforts to negotiate with terrorists failed, the party and KP government provided whole hearted support to military operations. ANP leadership paid great personal price for their courageous stance against terrorism.

In May 2009, President Zardari himself announced launch of Operation Rah e Raast in Swat, which resulted in turning the tide against TTP, culminating in its total elimination from Pakistan after successful Operation Zarb e Azb in North Waziristan in 2014.

During this period most other political leaders played safe giving ambiguous statements to avoid antagonizing TTP terrorists.

The present resurgence of TTP in K-P is marked by radically transformed regional and domestic political environment. Regionally, Afghanistan is being ruled by their ideological kins, who are providing active logistics, financial and manpower support to TTP. Domestically, PTI’s K-P government’s hostility towards federal government and establishment is fueling TTP resurgence.

PTI’s policy to resist everything and anything initiated by federal government is seriously impeding state’s efforts against terrorism to the extent of becoming a national security threat.

Goaded by their leader Imran Khan’s X handle, K-P government has openly opposed military option against terrorists, instead calling for dialogue and negotiations with both TTP and Afghanistan. While Imran Khan unceasingly repeats policy of dialogue pursued during his government, he conveniently omits the obtaining environment at that time. By 2018, when Imran Khan assumed government, KP had already been cleansed of terrorists who were sheltering in Afghanistan.

Terrorist operations were limited only to occasional attacks on border posts in Bajaur and North Waziristan. Situation had improved to the extent that Army had withdrawn number of formation headquarters and units from ex Fata to their permanent peace locations. TTP had only to gain from any offer of negotiations.

Resultantly, TTP managed to get approximately 5,000 fighters released from jails, who are all now part of its fighting force. There is no evidence that TTP changed its policy of violence even for a day during or after these negotiations.

All previous attempts by the state to negotiate some kind of settlement with TTP met with same fate. Major negotiation efforts include 2004 Shakai Agreement, 2005 Shakai Agreement, 2006 North Waziristan Agreement, 2008 & 2009 Swat Peace Agreements and attempts by PTI government in 2021 were all ditched by terrorists themselves.

After every agreement, TTP only increased its strength, expanded its presence, reinforced its hold over local population and imposed restrictions on movement of security forces, virtually establishing its government in the area. Eventually completely abrogating the agreement on one or the other pretext.

It is obvious that terrorist commanders cannot maintain cohesiveness of their groups if they cease militancy. Perpetual fighting is the only way that enables them to seek funding from sponsors, generate revenue from other sources, recruit fresh manpower and hold together existing fighters as a fighting force.

All successful peace agreements around the world have resulted in fast melting and splintering of militant groups. TTP leadership is fully aware of that hence, peace is anathema for them.

Moreover, in past Afghan Taliban were themselves busy fighting in Afghanistan and could not spare any manpower to support TTP. Under present circumstances even a temporary letup by security forces, will result in flooding of KP with fighters rushing in from across the border.

Repeated statements posted on his X handle in favour of dialogue with TTP and Afghanistan while strongly criticizing federal government and establishment, indicate that either Imran Khan is delusional besides being completely oblivious of history or he intentionally seeks to compound problems by mobilizing public opinion against military operations.

This narrative is further amplified by various PTI MPAs who now seem to be standing on the side of terrorists instead of the state. Local PTI leaders in collaboration with PTM have been leading localized agitations to prevent security forces from conducting operations. In July and August this year locals were mobilized to stop security forces from moving against TTP fighters who had moved in from Afghanistan in large numbers.

Respecting local sentiment, security forces paused operations to provide time for jirgas to negotiate with terrorists to vacate the areas. Jirga requests were not only rejected by infiltrators, pause in operations provided them time to increase their strength, expand area of operations and dug in their positions. Consequently, resumed clearance operations are taking much longer time and effort to evict well entrenched fighters.

PTI’s opposition towards operations is also a tactical measure to avoid being targeted by TTP through appeasement. Such measures have proven to be futile in past as terrorists eventually resort to eliminating any alternative social and political leadership. Afghan Taliban did it from 2006 to 2007 and TTP adopted same strategy from 2007 to 2009.

For the time being TTP also seems to have redrawn its strategy ostensibly to capitalize on divergences between federal and provincial governments. It is avoiding targeting civilians and embedding itself with local population to shield against military action.

However, history suggests that where ever these terrorists establish control, they impose ruthless rule by invoking their perverted version of Shariah and executing people from time to time to induce fear and submission in local population.

At the time when a cohesive national response is essential to once again turn the tide against terrorism, political polarization is costing Pakistan lives at the hands of terrorists. TTP-PTI-PTM nexus doesn’t bode well for K-P and Pakistan.