CIA sounds alarm over China’s tech rise

US paranoia with China undermines global stability as America seeks to maintain unipolar world

The drums of a technological Cold War are growing deafening, with the CIA leading the chorus of alarm over China’s “existential threat” to American supremacy – even as experts warn that Washington’s containment gambit is stirring the pot in Asia, and Pakistan’s recent strikingly successful deployment of Chinese arms fuels long-simmering anxieties about Beijing’s rising prowess.

In an interview with Axios, CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis laid the cards bare. Unlike the Soviet Union, China’s challenge to the United States unfolds primarily along economic, technological and ideological lines, precisely the domains where America once claimed undisputed hegemony.

Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, semiconductors and energy storage, these, he said, are the battlegrounds of the 21st century. However, experts warn that his worry, however, says more about American vulnerability than Chinese aggression.

A European source— a long-time interlocutor between Brussels and Beijing—told The Express Tribune on the condition of anonymity that the so-called ‘China threat’ was, in essence, the fear that Chinese innovation and standards could undermine American might.

The source characterised remarks by Ellis and other US officials as provocative and dangerous, reflecting Washington’s growing anxiety over China’s technological ascent. 

He noted that the unease surrounding not just China’s technological rise but also its growing military prowess has been building for years. That, he added, was also “proved” by Pakistan’s military after it effectively validated those concerns by deploying Chinese J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 missiles in the May War with India, marking the first real-time combat use of cutting-edge Chinese hardware. 

For Western observers, it was a stark wake-up call.

The source said even as the CIA expands its “elite workforce” of engineers and scientists, Donald Trump has gutted the National Security Council’s China team, reportedly firing or sidelining nearly all of its members, save Ivan Kanapathy. 

However, experts say the descent into anti-China hysteria is not new. Trump’s pick for CIA Director had already declared in January that the agency must become more “aggressive” in its covert actions and human intelligence. 

The man who would soon direct the CIA said plainly: “We will conduct covert actions at the direction of the president, going places no one else can go and doing things no one else can do.”

The ambition came into sharp relief on May 1, when the CIA posted two Mandarin-language recruitment videos on social media, offering disillusioned Chinese government employees an “exit plan”. Beijing responded swiftly. “A naked political provocation,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs retorted. 

Meanwhile, even as Washington accuses China of cyber-espionage and intellectual theft, it openly solicits espionage within Chinese institutions. Ironically, while the US tries to spy on China, it remains terrified that others are spying on it. 

Beijing, for its part, appears to be shoring up its internal defences. China’s Ministry of State Security recently warned former state employees with access to sensitive information against leaking secrets, citing a case in which an ex-employee, lured by a foreign agency, was sentenced for espionage. 

‘Containment strategy’

Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow of the Taihe Institute and Chair of Asia Narratives Substack, told The Express Tribune, the US frames China as a security threat due to its military, technological, and economic rise. 

“This rhetoric, fuelled by competition in trade and technology, is used to support a containment strategy.”

"The US exaggerates China’s rise to justify containment rather than reflect on its own mistakes,” he pointed out. "Calling China a ‘threat’ is 'red meat' for US politicians."  

Tangen noted that America believed stirring up problems in and around China would aid America, but it only destabilises and adds to the uncertainty that is hurting the world. "Competition shouldn't overshadow the need for global cooperation,” he stressed.

China’s growth in tech and manufacturing increases yuan usage in global trade, potentially reducing the dollar’s dominance.

“China’s innovation serves global demand, it is not aimed at undermining the USD, that is being done by Washington through ham-handed bully tactics. China’s digital advances are boosting global growth. It's what America should be doing rather than trying to resurrect its hegemony."  

"The dollar weakened due to US economic choices, and it's time for America to review those choices and start competing rather than complaining,” he added. 

Interference in Asia via alliances

Regarding the Pakistan-India conflict, Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, pointed the finger at the United States, drawing a line from US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India to the deadly Pahalgam attack and subsequent Indian aggression against Pakistan.

“Everyone knows the US needs India to stir trouble near China’s borders, particularly involving China and Pakistan as part of its strategy to balance policies, influence and peace in South Asia,” he said. He added that the American strategy appears to be losing steam in the region.

Weighing in on regional tensions and US involvement, Einar Tangen said India was balancing security concerns about China with its economic ties. While US interference has created friction, it hasn’t permanently damaged relations.

He clarified that India’s independence isn’t a threat to China, but it is to the U.S, which frames the world in terms of ‘you’re either with us or against us'. "China and India as neighbours must prioritise dialogue to create stability."

"Western interference worsens regional tensions."

He warned Western military alliances were disrupting Asia, with only a perceived, not a real, benefit to Washington. “A lesson that should have been learned from America's policies and actions in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia."

The scholar further cautioned that India’s partnerships with the US risked increasing regional tensions, shifting the power balance, and sparking proxy conflicts. "India-US military ties will only escalate regional instability."

"Balanced relations, not alliances, ensure peace,” he emphasised. He stressed that China and India should focus on trade, not conflict. "QUAD and AUKUS provoke tensions instead of cooperation."

Key differences

However, to portray the unfolding rivalry merely as a security standoff would be to miss the deeper currents. As economist and Marxist thinker David Harvey has argued, US capitalism thrives on the chaos of the market, whereas China’s strength lies in state-led investment and long-term planning. 

It is precisely this divergence that makes the contest so asymmetrical. According to Professor Wang, the United States has always been a political system dominated by private capital. The so-called "China threat" is essentially a threat posed by China to America's dominance in high technology and in setting global standards.

“It [US] has effectively colonised its allies and digital systems like Swiss online infrastructure, creating what can be called digital colonies. While claiming to provide global public goods, the US has simultaneously hijacked the international currency order.”

Scholars argue that America’s current dilemma is largely self-inflicted. Through decades of deindustrialisation, market fundamentalism and Wall Street-first policies, the US hollowed out its own manufacturing core. 

China, by contrast, pursued a sui generis path: merging Marxist-Leninist party control with market dynamics and rigorous industrial policy. The result is what some call “techno-industrial sovereignty”, a model that Washington cannot replicate without abandoning its ideological dogmas.

“The US prioritises private capital and a market-driven economy, while China focuses on state-led development and long-term planning. The US maintains a strong dollar to finance debt and benefit Wall Street, making manufacturing less competitive,” Tangen explained.

The US, he noted, chased short-term profits, while China invested in long-term benefits. 

“China continues to focus on the high-margin digital economy, while the US focuses on low-margin capital-intensive reindustrialisation.” 

 "America’s strong dollar was an own goal that eviscerated its manufacturing competitiveness so Washington could borrow cheaply and Wall Street could grow exponentially."  

"China's planning fuels economic and tech growth. Trump's does the opposite,” the scholar pointed out, adding that Trump's tariff plan was also flawed as it taxed consumers and, if successful, would reduce tariff collections.

Observers have long noted that while America’s elite chased short-term profits, China treated AI, green energy, and quantum computing as national priorities, funding them accordingly. If the last Cold War was about nukes and proxies, the new one is about who sets the rules for 5G, EVs, and digital currencies. Right now, Beijing is taking the lead.

The moment calls for nuance over paranoia.