K-P elections 2013: A farrago of hope and fear
My prognosis is that PTI will get some 15 seats, PML-N 20 plus seats, and PPP 12 seats in the upcoming elections.
Pashtuns are generally the most democratic people in Pakistan.
By looking at the history of elections in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), it is safe to say that they have voted for parties with leftist, rightist or liberal religious ideologies.
Furthermore, it shows that unlike others provinces, K-P voted for all parties in the previous elections and yet no one brought tranquility and development to this region.
2013 is another election year in Pakistan and the country will brace itself to one of the most crucial elections since its birth.
In K-P, every political party has an active presence and as elections draw near, political parties have started preparing themselves for an election campaign.
Read below for a candid prognosis of the political parties of K-P in the 2013 elections.
Awami National Party (ANP)
ANP won the 2008 election with a thumping majority and has successfully completed its five years term. However, in the 2013 elections, its seats will be decreased as people aren't as satisfied with its governance and deliverance.
That said, its performance isn’t as poor as that of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government in Islamabad; ANP has had some achievements in its credentials.
The ideological votes of ANP are still intact and will help lift the party in the elections.
My prognosis is that they will get approximately 16 seats in the elections, from the Peshawar, Mardan and Malakand divisions.
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)
PPP being a coalition ally of the ANP government has miserably failed to deliver. Its ideological voters are unhappy with the performance of PPP ministers in K-P. Also, the federal government and central leadership of this party has ignored the staunch jiyalas of their party, which will pound PPP in the next elections.
However, Anwar Saifullah, as provincial president had brought some solace to PPP in K-P, but this won’t impetus the party to a major extent.
My analysis is that more or less, they will get 12 seats in the elections, and that from the Malakand, Peshawar division and the Southern districts of K-P.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F)
JUI-F, being the largest opposition party in K-P assembly has a brighter chance of getting votes in the upcoming elections.
Their campaign depends on local clerics and this is beneficial to the party as they are present in every locality.
I feel as though JUI-F will triumph in the southern districts of K-P and will also extract seats from other areas.
Thus, I believe that they will get 20 plus seats in the upcoming elections.
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N)
After the addition of Ameer Muqam to the party, PML-N’s political outlook is great in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa!
Leaders have been quite active in the province since the past few months, and this, no doubt is beneficial to the party.
However, with that being said, Nawaz Sharif is oblivious to the party’s campaign in K-P. As soon as he starts taking interest in the campaign, I am sure that PML-N will be even more popular in K-P.
Hence, in this respect, I believe that PML-N will get 20 plus seats in the upcoming elections and mostly from the Hazara and Malakand division. However, these seats might be augmented from Peshawar and Mardan districts.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
Imran Khan is treasured more in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa than in any other province in Pakistan.
According to recent surveys, PTI led by Imran Khan is the most popular party of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, but the rivalry between provincial leadership and their inability to activate the party among masses has lowered their chance of getting majority votes in the 2013 elections.
PTI has not started an election campaign yet and many stalwarts who joined PTI after its boom have left the party. However, the power factor is that the party is present in every union council and it is up to their provincial leadership as to how they utilise it.
My prognosis is that PTI will get more or less 15 seats in the upcoming elections from the Peshawar, Hazara and Malakand divisions.
Jamat-e-Islami is the most organised party in K-P, but its political clout is comparatively weaker than the above mentioned parties. The party isn’t very active yet.
According to my analysis, JI will get around 10 seats in the upcoming elections from the Peshawar and Malakand division.
Qaumi Watan Party (QWP)
The Aftab Sherpao led QWP has been quite active since the past few months. He has been trying to pursue nationalist folks in his favour; however, the response is not promising.
My prognosis is that QWP will get more or less 10 seats from the Peshawar and Swabi districts and a few from other pickets.
Everyone seems to be anxious about the elections in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
Though there is a chance of an electoral alliance between JUI-F and PML-N, they will need the support of one or two more parties to form a stable government.
In a nutshell, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is ready to witness a political farrago.
Follow Taimur on Twitter @iamTribalKhan