A dangerous moment

After Russian jet incident, crafting an anti-IS alliance is going to require the diplomatic equivalent of a miracle

The Russian Sukhoi Su-24 that was brought down by a Turkish F-16 firing an AIM-9 missile was the first Russian aircraft to be shot down by a Nato state since 1953. The Turks shot it down as it violated their airspace for around 17 seconds despite being warned not to 10 times (according to the Turks). Both pilots ejected. It is claimed that one was killed by ground fire as he descended. The other survived and has been rescued after a 12-hour operation involving Russian special forces. A Russian rescue helicopter was in all probability destroyed by Turkmen irregulars of the Free Syrian Army, operating with American support. They used an American anti-tank missile to accomplish this.



A cursory reading of the above illustrates both the complexity of the evolving incident and the dangers it represents. Russia is using its airpower both to support the Assad regime in Syria as well as damage the Islamic State (IS). America has come out in support of the Turkish actions saying it has a right to defend itself and Russia denies the incursion anyway. Meanwhile, President Francois Hollande of France is visiting the US and Russia in an attempt to forge an anti-IS alliance. Russia is hurting because of Western sanctions imposed after it invaded Crimea and Ukraine, and now finds itself drawn into having to make an alliance with the very countries that are imposing sanctions. The French have joined the Russians in the aerial assault on the IS and have moved an aircraft carrier into the Mediterranean to support their own as well as Russian actions. Turkey is ‘facilitating’ the Americans by allowing them use of the Incirlik airbase.

The dangers are evident, and it appears that the major powers, principally Russia and the US, wish to avoid escalation. The IS is the common enemy and the possibility of those fighting it falling out among themselves will doubtless bring a smile to the terror group’s strategists in Raqqa. There is a clash of strategic interests in Syria that are currently impossible to reconcile, and to craft an anti-IS alliance is going to require the diplomatic equivalent of a miracle.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 26^th,  2015.

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