Backgrounder: Numbers game with new twists

MQM's decision will force PPP to look for new allies or face a possible no-confidence motion against the PM.

ISLAMABAD: A decision by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to quit the ruling coalition will force the ruling party to look for new allies or face a possible no-confidence motion against the prime minister in parliament.

The president can also ask the prime minister to seek a fresh vote of confidence from the National Assembly, a choice that may result in the replacement of Prime  Minister Gilani with a candidate that may be more acceptable to future political allies.

At least 20 per cent (68 seats) of the total 342-member of the National Assembly are required to move a no-trust motion against the prime minister. In case a no-trust motion is unsuccessful, the opposition cannot move another one for at least six months.

The ruling PPP has 125 members in the National Assembly, 47 short of simple majority to keep the government in office. It has support from Awami National Party (ANP) with 13 lawmakers, five from the Pir Pagara-led Functional League and around 17 independent members.

There would still be the shortage of at least a dozen legislators, despite putting the collective strength of those still supporting the government.

On the other hand, on opposition side there would be 91 members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), 51 from two factions of the PML-Q, 25 of the MQM, seven of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) — a strength that, if combined, could easily outnumber that of ruling alliance.

At this stage, the MQM has said that it has decided to sit on opposition benches and will not support any attempt to topple the government. MQM spokesman Haider Abbas Rizvi told The Express Tribune from Karachi that while it will oppose the government’s anti-people moves like the recent hike in petroleum prices, “We will continue supporting their positive things.”

Similarly, the PML-Q, which is the second largest opposition group with 51 seats in the National Assembly, says it will not move the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Gilani. A spokesperson for the party told The Express Tribune from Lahore that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) must take the lead in this regard because it is the largest opposition party with 91 lawmakers.

But, according to an unofficial reaction by some top PML-N leaders, the group led by two-time former premier Nawaz Sharif is not ready at all to grab power at the centre because it believes the situation is ‘too bleak to be handled’.

An official response to the MQM’s move by the PML-N, however, is not forthcoming as it seems the party is shying away from directly commenting on the possible consequences of Sunday’s development. “We have no objection to MQM sitting on the opposition benches,” said party MNA, Khawaja Saad Rafiq.

PML-N’s Information Secretary preferred not to comment on the development, though a party leader last week hinted in clear words at not voting in favour of Gilani if he faces the no-confidence. It is, however, not clear whether the PML-N will itself bring in a no-trust motion against Gilani, who has of late been under a lot of criticism by political groups and the media alike.

Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, which last month quit the ruling coalition after Gilani fired one of its members as federal minister, has already called for his removal. Skeptics say President Asif Ali Zardari also wants to show Gilani the exit door and waiting an ‘appropriate’ time to go ahead with his plan. It is, however, not clear what is likely to be followed. More important, after the 18th amendment, in case the opposition brings a no-trust move it would also have to nominate its candidate for leader of the house. Bringing a consensus candidate by opposition parties will be another challenge for all concerned.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 3^rd, 2011.