External security has been a principal concern for Pakistan. Two recent security issues have acquired salience and require a new approach in the current regional context: the ongoing armed conflict between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir and the Working Boundary between Kashmir and Pakistani territory in the Sialkot area; and the withdrawal of American and Nato troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new government has adopted a tough line towards Pakistan. It seems that India’s new national security and army establishment and the hardliners in the BJP have decided to apply military pressure on Pakistan. For this purpose, India has escalated violence on the LoC and on the Working Boundary as a punitive measure against Pakistan, with a firm belief that Pakistan would not escalate it to a full-fledged war. This calculation is based on the assumption that given Pakistan Army’s heavy entanglement in North Waziristan and security pressures on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Pakistan would not escalate the skirmishes on the LoC or the Working Boundary.
The Indian Army and security experts, since the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November 2008, have explored the option of taking some punitive military action against Pakistan that would not cause a major war. They thought of carrying out a limited war, surgical airstrikes or punitive military action. They also toyed with the idea of what they described as the ‘Cold Start’ strategy, which called for creating a fast-moving joint ground and other services action to capture limited Pakistani territory. These suggestions were meant to punish Pakistan. However India, under Manmohan Singh, did not resort to these military actions because of the risk of escalation by Pakistan.
Now, the Indian Army and Modi’s national security establishment decided to take a limited risk by striking on Pakistani territory from the Jammu area, which is not separated by the international boundary but by the LoC or the Working Boundary. In this way, India is using the cover of Kashmir to target Pakistani territory. This cannot be viewed as a violation of the international border.
India’s army and its national security establishment is now experimenting with a new strategy to deal with Pakistan. Refusing to subscribe to the well-known argument that a stable Pakistan is in the interest of India, the new thinking in India’s official circles is that it should be more active in supporting dissident and separatist groups in Pakistan and helping militant groups that challenge the Pakistani state. For this reason, relations with, and presence in, Afghanistan is important. This provides India with access to Pakistan’s Baloch dissident elements and some Taliban groups. India is expected increase support to these groups. What these groups need is funding, which can be provided by India and other states that want to take advantage of Pakistan’s internal problems.
Another set of security challenges is arising on Pakistan’s northwestern borders with Afghanistan. The withdrawal of American and Nato troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 needs to be examined in a dispassionate manner in order to cope with the security situation in Afghanistan in 2015 and onwards. If the internal conflict in Afghanistan escalates and the Afghan Taliban become entrenched in Afghan areas adjoining Pakistan, this will have a negative impact on Pakistan’s tribal areas. It is, therefore, important that Pakistan helps the Afghan government to cope with its internal problems. This serves Pakistan’s interests because if the Afghan Taliban become strong, it will embolden the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups.
This calls for paying attention to the control of the tribal areas by Pakistan’s security forces. The current military operation in North Waziristan holds the key to asserting Pakistan’s primacy in the tribal areas. The successes in this operation, so far, create the hope that the Pakistan Army will be able to establish control over the whole of North Waziristan. It should also assert its primacy in other tribal agencies so that the Taliban and other militant elements should not have any territory under their exclusive control. A lack of control of territory by militant groups undermines their capacity to threaten the Pakistani state. This will also make it difficult for foreign fighters to find sanctuary in Pakistan.
Pakistan should also adopt effective measures to strengthen security arrangements on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. This should be done even if Afghanistan is not willing to cooperate. The surveillance of the border by electronic and human means should be done. This can be reinforced by strengthening border security posts for controlling the unauthorised movement of people, especially that of militants. If the tribal areas and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border are secured, it will be possible to control the negative fallout of the increased internal strife in Afghanistan.
Further, Pakistan must take the initiative to cultivate the new Afghan government so that it discards Hamid Karzai’s anti-Pakistan posture. President Ashraf Ghani and the Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah should be invited to Islamabad or Lahore.
Pakistan should project its new counter-terrorism policy in the tribal areas and on the Afghanistan-Pakistan borders at the international level. This will help build a positive image for Pakistan at the global level. Pakistan’s diplomacy must also expose India’s new aggressive agenda towards it, to all friendly countries, especially the states that have good relations with India.
Pakistan should let the international community know that the armed conflicts on the LoC are not local or accidental incidents. Rather, these are well-planned actions by India against Pakistan. India’s aggressive policy towards Pakistan is not going to fade away. It will continue to build military pressure on Pakistan from time to time. Therefore, while responding to India’s military action in military terms, Pakistan must also resort to preventive diplomacy so that it does not have to shift its troops to the LoC or to the international border with India from the tribal areas and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 20th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (33)
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Pakistan is in a very tough situation as the present Hindutva government is pressurizing it on mulitple fronts in an effort to slowly degrade it and then try to disintegrate it. They have smelt blood and are trying to get back at the "Asuras" for their 1000 year rule.
The best solution for Pakistan right now is to improve its economy and destroy the terrorist groups operating inside it. Once Pakistan is strong, it can shift miliitary resources to the eastern border.
Pakistan must be patient, grit its teeth and carry on. Strength is the ultimate deterrent.
@Tyggar: Thanks for the hint. Yes, now I know you.
@Gp65: Gp65, I believe Benjamin was being sarcastic. By the way, you know me, I had to restructure my name
ET Mods - please allow respinse to someone who has written to me. @Benjamin: Pakistan putting economic sanctions on companies doing business with India and this ould potentially lower global growth by 1% point? You can't be serious.
Please know that Pakistan's total annual imports are $48 billion of ehich half are oil from your OIC brothers. So if you think that your 24 billion of exports gves you some kind of leverage to stop companies from trading with India you are dreaming.
You should perhaps recall the type of response Pakistan got when your minister Anusha Rehman said that unless youtube complied with Pakistan expectation on blasphemy, it would ban google. no google sernior management even tried to talk to Pakistan minister to have them change their mind.
Most airlines have stopped servicing Pakistan and foreign banks particularly western banks are withdrawing from Pakistan. A 17 trillion dollar econoy can impose sanctions and the will bite. A. 220 billion economy cannot.
@Author I hope you must have been enlightened with some honest comments by the Indians pointing out exactly where the fault lies. Sir, until the root cause namely the faulty policies adopted by Pakistan for several decades towards India and other neighbours are completely abandoned, massive counter-measures adopted by India would continue regardless as its tolerance limit is completely exhausted. Some measures suggested for Pakistan to internationalise the issue and play victim card have already failed as UN refused to intervene on its recent complaint on firing and plebiscite plea, asking both countries to resolve all issues including Kashmir through dialogue.
Dipak@Benjamin: Majid Nizami, the owner of the Nation newspaper, died waiting for this to happen. Anyway, good joke.
The more Pakistan internationalizes its problems and blames others for them, the more will the wolrd distrust, fear and disgust Pakistan.
@Gp65: Pakistan have one very effective weapon in its arsenal. Pakistan can put economic sanction on India and other countries, companies doing business with India. This is sure gonna hurt global growth by point of so. In this time of economic turmoil, world economies cant ignore Pakistan and bound to take note of its grievances.
Improving security on your Afghan border and eliminating terrorist should improve your image .. but improve image alone isn't going to convince the international community that India is the bad guy. On the bright side ..improved image may finally get a few people to at least listen to your side of the story.
@Poor Little Indians: If Modi is Hitler, we would have heard of millions of Indian Muslims seeking asylum elsewhere. But it in in Pakistan that Australia advertises that asylum seekers will be sent back. Even Sri Lanka complained about Pakistanis misusing vistiors visas to seek asylum. Even Britain and Canada are sendng back asylum seekers from Pakistan. Most of these are Muslims of minority sects who are not considered Muslims by many in the majority sect. On top of that thousands of Pakistani Hindus have sought aslum in India in the last few years. That tells you where minorities are safe and where they are not.
As far as supporting LTTE - that happened in 1982. Once it became clear that LTTE was a terrorist organisation, India stopped support. In fact India sent a peace keeping force in 1987 at the request of Sri Lanka government. That is why Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by LTTE. On the pthr hqnd Pqkistan has never revrsed its policy of snding foreign jihadis o Kashmir. Unlike the 90s though, Indian government is much better prepared now so infiltration rates have dramatically reduced.
@Prakash: Salaam. well said Yaar!
Unfortunately the status quo tested politicians are not up to it, nor is the now degraded civil service. We need new leaders, new blood.
Modi is the re incarnation of Hitler. He is an extremely dangerous fascist.
India's sponsorship of terror in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka will come back to haunt it.
Kashmiris will get their right of self determination, people like Modi are only accelerating the inevitable.
@Analyzer: The link you sent was not by Chuck Hagel US Secretary of Defense based on knowledge of anything. It was by Chuck Hagel, a senator from opposition giving a personal speech based on his opinion. He assumed India would do what most normal countries would i.e. pay Pakistan back in kind by encouraging the Baloch freedom fighters. At that same time when Chuck was making the speechm though, Hillary who WAS the secretary of state said in no uncertain terms that there was no evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan.
If you read what the author says though, he admits that India has thus far NOT interfered in Pakistan and believed that a stale Pakistan is better for India. But under Modi it may get involved in Balochistan. That is certainly possible if Pakistan does not stop pushing foreign jihadis in India as it has been all these years and sending arms and money to Indian Mujahidin. The thing is that you have already lied to your people and told them India was meddling in Balochistan, so even iif it does it in the future to payback for activities in India, what will you say which is different?
@SV: 1.2 billion people of India got its own trillions of problem : Go and solve it first and then look towards your neighbotrs problems.
Chuck hagel (United States Secretary of Defense): 'India financed problems (Terrorism) for Pakistan' from Afghanistan: Chuck Hagel http://tribune.com.pk/story/512867/india-financed-problems-for-Pakistan-from-Afghanistan-chuck-hagel/
The Fact of Matter is : Indian Political & Military Regime is an enemy of 1.5 billion people of south Asia. India Financing terrorism inside Pakistan, Bangladesh, Siri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan & China using afghan Soil.
@Shazia Aren't you trying really REALLY hard to appear innocent:-)???? But you still don't impress any one in the world you are innocent.
It is the story of boy who cried wolf all the time. The whole world knows who has been the instigator since 1947. It is the exact same one and only side. He may not have any power, but you think Ban Ki Moon is a naïve individual and doesn't know history?
@Ravi: Brilliant articulation of he Indian perspective. The Pakistan military has to learn that the new government in India is not
1) afraid of implied nuclear threats by Pakistan since as you rightly said, India will never use nuclear weapons and Pakistani generals know perfectly welll what will happen if hey use them.
2) afraid of Pakistan's attempt to internationalise the issue
The author says Pakistan should use its foreign office to tell the world about India's aggressive designs as though it is a new idea not yet implemented. It has already called envoys of P-5 countries and briefed them. Contacted UN repeatedly. Had Dar bring up the issue in the IMF forum as well as raised the issue with the 2 visiting senators. What more does he expect he foreign office to do? The reality is there are much bigger prolems the world over and no one has the bandwidth for a boy who repeatedly cries wolf.
There is nothing in Pakistan that India wants and no reason for India to start firing. If Pakistan stops firing there will be peace. If it does not stop firing, no amount of handwringing by foreign office will stop India from iving a disproportionate response.
@Ravi: which source you have used to make aware yourself ?.. have you visit LOC on your own during the violation or your media makes you aware of the facts ?...if do so how could be you so sure of authenticity of your media and so doubtful about the information leading to average Pakistani... if the Indians are so sure of the innocence of their side then why should we not ?
@Its (still) Economy Stupid: Punitive in the sense of what India's approach toward Pakistan. China has no border dispute with Pakistan but with India.. the dispute over borders just not need to solve on Pakistan end but it needs more attention in India's matter.. India wants to create her hegemony in the region ...the root cause of all issues in the region
@Sanjeev: Hey don't tell them all our secrets .... Any way formation of Pakistan was also a conspiracy theory for Pakistani establishment... LOL
Indian army's 'Cold Start doctrine' had its genesis in the 2001 Indian Parliament attack and not in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. I think the author is trying to bend facts to suit his shallow theories. Peace.
Pakistani thinkers are committing a big blunder if they think Indian response is going to be of military. While Pakistani establishment will be playing war-games to see what possible responses can be given and occasionally brandishing nuclear weapons, India will destroy Pakistan completely from the very unexpected angle, which India has not done in the past. Earlier government was prattling that stable Pakistan is in the interest of India but Modi government has concluded that Pakistan will never change and complete break up of Pakistan will be in its interest. As USA won the cold war without firing a single bullet and taking a clue from Sun-Tsu India will also win without firing a single bullet. USSR did not survive even with 3000 nuclear weapons and Pakistan is thinking their hundred or so nukes will save them. The second part of cold-start is not military response but at the end of the operation, the net result will be total destruction of Pakistan.
in a nutshell pakistan is a paragon of principles and morals and all of it's neighbors are absolute despondent jobless morons who conspire against it,for the reasons only known to the dwellers of the land of pure...as i am one of those morons i really wanted to know what is there in pakistan.
India had to initiate attack on Pakistan because India can gain so much from the vibrant economy of Pakistan. The economic progress made by Pakistan in last 67 years is 10 times better than USA and India can gain so much from Pakistan.
How come I always see these half-baked armchair analysts given prominence in the land of pure. I have seen this guy in pakistani talk-shows weaving conspiracy theories one after another. Hope this land of pure extricate itself from the quagmire that it is in now today.
Pakistan as two problems both of which have no known cure - one - it believes it is the center of the the universe and all countries revolve around it and will do things to please pakisan. The fact is pakistan is nothing but an international migraine. The second is that pakistan believes that its conduct is as clean as a new born baby but the truth is its conduct is as clean as coal miner coming home after a 12 hour shift.
The fact remains that OBL was found in Pakistan !!! and so is Haqqani Network .. amd Mulla Omar ... what say ??
This arm-chair journalist needs to get up from his chair once in a while, or he might soon achieve new dimensions of senility.
Dr. Rizvi makes immense sense for an average uninformed Pakistani. For the rest, he couldn't be farther from the truth. Here's what Pakistan needs to do:
Accept responsibility for violating the ceasefire along LoC as a distraction from Pakistan’s internal turmoil.
Stop instigating India by repeated violations and you will see there will not be a single shot fired from the Indian side.
Understand that India’s response is quite normal. Any country when attacked will respond in a manner consistent with India’s response. The only difference is that India should have acted normally a long time ago.
Know that Pakistan has nothing to offer for which India would either initiate or escalate violence. India still believes that a stable Pakistan is good for India, it always will.
Cold Start is still in place, but only as a defensive strategy. Pakistan must understand India isn’t governed by Manmohan Singh anymore and it must adapt to the changing paradigm.
Know that India isn’t using the cover of Kashmir to target Pakistani territory. Rather, it’s Pakistan using the cover of gunfire to push militants and terrorists into the Indian Territory.
Remember that India hasn’t in the past resorted to providing support to the dissidents and separatist groups in Pakistan as well as in Baluchistan. However, under new administration, there is a possibility that India will provide support the Baluchi freedom fight. India will never provide support to the militants; in fact it will help Pakistan in getting rid of them.
If Pakistan feels that withdrawal of American and NATO troops from Afghanistan will cause an external threat to Pakistan, why did they earlier oppose their agreement? Moreover, is Pakistan so weak as to not be able to deal with the disturbances along Afghanistan while the Army talks of having the capability to give India a befitting reply?
Recognize that cultivating Afghanistan is not what’s needed. The solution lies in not imposing Pakistani policies or interfering in their internal affairs. If Pakistan can’t do any good for them, at least not bring them any harm.
Understand that the international community isn’t dumb or deaf. They understand who the aggressor is, and has been? Pakistan needs to modulate its policy towards India that must take in to serious consideration that under Narendra Modi, India is now ready to respond to any misadventure from its neighbor at a scale that will make the price of adventurism impossible for Pakistan to bear.
Refrain from making nuclear threats. India has no first use policy. God forbid if Pakistan actually carries out the threat, even Pakistani defense analysts would agree that it will be far more cataclysmic for Pakistan than for India.
So, it’s easier to live in peace and harmony than to test each other’s military prowess.
Paranoid much?
Which neighbour does Pakistan not have a problem with: Iran, Afghanistan, China, India - who is left?! - In all cases strategic assets of the state are in play - sometimes independently and at other times with open support from the establishment. Pakistan has not spared even its all weather friend - China! Just look at the Xianjiang region. It is in a full war with its Muslim "brothers" in FATA / Afghanistan. If that was not enough a new frontier with Iran - also, Muslim but Shia, is being opened.
The international community "knows". Pakistan has no credibility when it comes to its "strategic assets". No fancy diplomacy can explain perpetual irresponsible conduct.
The insecurities. Of a nuclear state ±+++++++++++++++++++++: Villain in new role that of the victim.
Author should also consider that It is not only India and Afghanistan which are accusing Pakistan for border violence but another neighbour Iran has also joined the party.
punitive measure against Pakistan, taking some punitive military action, were meant to punish Pakistan Punish innocent Pakistan for what? Only peace loving people live there and if Pakistan is not guilty of anything than why punitive and punish word appeared three times? Guilty conscious may be?
Its time for China, Iran, India and Afghanistan to have a joint strategy to deal with border dispute with Pakistan for once and all.